Marie Penza

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Technically Speaking, August 2020 - The Dog Days are upon us, yet the animal ruling the roost is the bull. That is, if you are in the stock market and most of the metals. Not so much if you own U.S. dollars. With the world still upside down due to the pandemic, whole swaths of the economy are likely to change;...
Technically Speaking, July 2020 - The summer doldrums are upon us but given the slowdown in economic activity, it is hard to tell the difference. The pandemic remains topic one, while politics is creeping higher up the list. How will stocks do if Red wins? Or if Blue wins? Or if the rapper is actually...
Technically Speaking, June 2020 - As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted. There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s...
Technically Speaking, May 2020 - The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in...
Technically Speaking, April 2020 - Happy Equinox, shut ins. Yes, as the seasons change, all over the globe we are staying inside and away from each other. Does that affect your mental state? You bet it does. And does it affect your market analysis and trading? Probably, but maybe not as much as it might have done...
Technically Speaking, March 2020 - Dear Members, For more than 50 years, the TAN Association has existed to advance the discipline of technical analysis. This core value established by our founders guides us as we face the difficult challenge of responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19),...
Technically Speaking, February 2020 - The month of March is said to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. If we apply that to this January, it was pretty much the reverse. After months of nary a hiccup, the stock market growled its way into the close and in the process wiped out its early gains. It does...
Technically Speaking, January 2020 - Letter from the Editor Well, another year is in the books and unless you were a short-only equities trader, you probably did well. I’m not going to give you the typical year-in-review in the markets because you all have your own charts. Rather, let’s look at where we are...
Technically Speaking, December 2019 - Letter from the Editor November proved to be an interesting month for the markets. Just before the market burped up a post-Thanksgiving 2% pullback, the Russell 2000 finally broke out from its 2019 range. False hope? Recession time? Once again, the sloth (look it up) of bearish...
Technically Speaking, November 2019 - As the leaves finally turn here in the New York area, the stock market has once again reached new highs, at least according to the big indices. But just when you stopped looking, the Russell clawed back to the top of its year-long range and the NYSE composite – the average Joe...
Technically Speaking, October 2019 - Forget March. October came in like a lion as the news cycle and economic reports stomped on the bulls. Considering that September was rather tame, it was a big wake-up call for stock jocks. But September did have its moments. The U.S. dollar soared and the UUP bullish dollar...
Technically Speaking, September 2019 - As we turn the page on another summer season, well, here in the Northern Hemisphere, traders return from the Hamptons, or wherever they park their yachts, and supposedly liquidity comes back with them. But this is no ordinary year. Between on-again, off-again trade talks with...
Technically Speaking, August 2019 - Once again, we find ourselves dealing with the external market forces of a China trade deal. Will we, or won’t we? But this time, China went into the currency markets and nobody liked that very much. And the internal forces, somewhat internal, anyway, of the Fed dropping...
Technically Speaking, July 2019 - We are still talking about trade battles with China and an arguably inverted yield curve. Yes, there are other perennial thorns in the paw (Iran and North Korea) but they don’t have much market moving history. As June ended, we got a trade battle truce and the stock market...
Technically Speaking, June 2019 - I know we Americans tend to have a self-centered view of things, but the U.S. market has outperformed most of the world for the past two years. Of course, there are some exceptions, notably in Australia, India and Saudi Arabia. Curiously, Greece and Russia appear to have woken...
Technically Speaking, June 2019 - I know we Americans tend to have a self-centered view of things, but the U.S. market has outperformed most of the world for the past two years. Of course, there are some exceptions, notably in Australia, India and Saudi Arabia. Curiously, Greece and Russia appear to have woken...
Technically Speaking, May 2019 - Just when everyone pooh-poohs our beloved “Sell in May” saw, it somehow starts to work. Or maybe it was just that the S&P 500 hit resistance on waning momentum? Hmm. I, for one, do not blame a tweet. And I also don’t expect this series of coincidences to dictate my...
Technically Speaking, April 2019 - Thanks to the constraints of newsletter publishing and the lack of time travel resources available, this edition of Technically Speaking was put to bed before the festivities of the 46th Annual Symposium, earlier this month. While we could not magically forecast what the...
Technically Speaking, March 2019 - The same old news seems to hang over the markets like a low level cow emission of uncertainty. Brexit – will it be hard or soft? China – will there be a trade deal or not? North Korea – nukes or no nukes? The Fed – quantitative tightening or not? Politics – not going...
Technically Speaking, February 2019 - So far, this year has been dominated by the partial government shutdown. Does it affect the markets? Well, maybe indirectly. New issue IPOs are held up due to a lack of resources at the regulators. Tax refunds may be delayed, so investors might be a little cash tight. And most...
Technically Speaking, December 2018 - January 2019 - They say March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. Well, 2018 came in like a lion and seems to have gone out like a lion, too. Check out this chart of the Dow’s daily true range going back to early 2016. Something is clearly different in 2018. If...
Technically Speaking, November 2018 - From the Editor Well, October certainly lived up to its spooky and quite volatile reputation. From leading momo tech stocks tanking to multiple multi-percentage point intraday moves everywhere else, I am sure antacid makers made a tidy profit. Of course, coffee, sugar and crude...
Technically Speaking, September 2018 - From the Editor As Randy Quaid’s character said as he was about to slay the alien ship in Independence Day, “Hello boys – I’m baaack!” Hello boys and girls! After a 20-year hiatus, I am back at the helm of Technically Speaking. The good news is that unlike last...

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