As I write this, the Nasdaq has completely erased its pandemic drop and most everything else looks pretty good. Overbought, but better than any of the so-called economists had predicted. There is one thing we technicians need to watch and that is trying to put the market’s action since February in a neat little box. I am not saying that this time is different – because it never is different – but that really only applies to the forces that govern free markets. What happened was entirely created by the governments around the world. Don’t get me wrong – with the information we had at the time, it seemed like the right move. In other words, to avoid being political, it was not the free market that caused the market to fall. We did not see breadth divergences that tipped off the arrival of the bear. We did not see any “nifty fifty” behavior where the entire market’s gain was due to a handful of stocks (don’t debate me on this; I know the extended FANG bunch was responsible for large percentages).
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What's Inside...
President’s Letter
by Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHPTechnically Speaking Readers – Join the exclusive “Uptrend” Discussions Starting in July! In last month’s issue, I suggested that I wanted to give you more of an incentive to read Technically...
In Memoriam – Richard “Dick” Dickson
by Michael Kahn, CMTEditor’s Note – Portions of the following were taken from a Technically Speaking interview he did for us in the April 2019 issue. Read the full text in the newsletter archive. Dick Dickson passed...
Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season: Chronobiology of Financial Market Distress
by Roy BarzilaiEditor’s Note – The subject matter here is outside of the Association’s purview; the views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author. Be forewarned that it makes claims on market...
The Association Deals with the New Normal
by Barbara TerryThe TAN Association has been putting into place the infrastructure and policies to conduct our “new normal” Chapter Meetings. We will have virtual meetings until...
Member Interview
by Theodore N. Krintas, Ph.DPlease tell us what you do professionally. I head a boutique behavioral consulting partnership called Koubaras Ltd, in Cyprus and Greece. We offer management services, corporate finance and estate...
Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary
by Mahesh Johari, CFAThe Twin Cities Chapter was pleased to host Doug Ramsey, CFA CMT, as our guest speaker for our May 19th meeting. Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of the Leuthold Group. For some...
"Wall Street Bound” Founder Connects Students With Finance Opportunities
by Marianna TesselloTroy Prince, CAIA, is a member of the TAN Association community and CEO of the nonprofit organization Wall Street Bound, recently featured on CNBC. Wall Street Bound seeks to connect underserved...
Membership News
by Marie PenzaMembers on the Move The TAN Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions: Michael A. Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management Ehtesham Khan, CMT,...
New Educational Content This Month
In addition to a new informational discussion with Stan Dash, TAN Program Director, we’ve added the last few educational webcasts and a recording of the virtual India chapter meeting to our archive this month. See the most recent additions below.
President’s Letter
Technically Speaking Readers – Join the exclusive “Uptrend” Discussions Starting in July!
In last month’s issue, I suggested that I wanted to give you more of an incentive to read Technically Speaking and give the TAN Association some feedback. Here is your opportunity to do just that and have some real fun doing it.
Starting in July, I will be launching a new and exclusive event – “Uptrend.” These short and engaging meetings will occur on the monthly basis and be an open forum to discuss markets, investing, trading, the industry, and careers. If the subject matter is in the realm of technical analysis and markets then no questions or discussion will be off limits. Sessions will be approximately 45 minutes long.
I will be hosting guests from all over the industry and the world. In our discussions we will provide you with answers to your questions, insights to markets, and a view
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP
Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM. He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors. He was formerly the co-manager...
In Memoriam – Richard “Dick” Dickson
Editor’s Note – Portions of the following were taken from a Technically Speaking interview he did for us in the April 2019 issue. Read the full text in the newsletter archive.
Dick Dickson passed away suddenly on June 1. After a career spanning nearly four decades as a technical analyst and strategist, he was only a few weeks into his partial retirement. However, even on his days off he was still the overriding presence at Lowry Research, often sending in his thoughts via email. When the other analysts were having disagreements on the interpretation of market conditions, it was not unusual to end with “What would Dick do?”
After serving in the U.S. Air Force and a few years in graduate school, he started working as a broker in 1979 with Thomson McKinnon Securities in Richmond, Va. During his first year, he decided to begin working toward the CFA designation. Using the
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Michael Kahn, CMT
Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker. Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on...
Bear Markets and Winter Flu Season: Chronobiology of Financial Market Distress
Editor’s Note – The subject matter here is outside of the Association’s purview; the views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author. Be forewarned that it makes claims on market performance that haven’t been empirically tested. However, I found it to be quite interesting and timely, making it fodder for further discussion.
Introduction
In this article, I wish to explain the interrelated nature of seasonal patterns of climate and weather, chronobiological cycles (how solar activity effects human behavior) with respect to economic activity, and financial market cycles, in view of recent winter trends of a pandemic, leading to a great recession and even depression in social and economic life.
Chronobiology is the science that studies how our natural hormonal cycles are synchronized in response to changes in solar activity, such as the circadian rhythm of day-night, or even seasonal patterns of sunshine during summer versus cold winter conditions.
In financial markets, bear
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Roy Barzilai
Roy Barzilai is an independent scholar and the author of several books, including The Testosterone Hypothesis: How Hormones Regulate the Life Cycles of Civilization. As a financial analyst for more than a decade, Roy became aware of the herd mentality in financial markets. He...
The Association Deals with the New Normal
The TAN Association has been putting into place the infrastructure and policies to conduct our “new normal” Chapter Meetings. We will have virtual meetings until at least August, depending on the re-opening plans for the world. Everyone’s safety is very important to us. Working with our chapter chairs, we are monitoring government mandates regarding group meeting limits.
New information regarding Chapter Meetings:
- We will be using the GoToWebinar platform to hold the meetings
- Meetings will begin in June
The following future Chapter Meetings have been scheduled:
- June 16th – Minnesota Chapter Meeting w/ Rob Sluymer, CFA
- June 23rd – Richmond Chapter Meeting
- June 24th – No. Ohio Meeting w/ Katie Stockton, CMT
- July 14th – Hong Kong & Singapore Joint Chapter Meeting
- July 21st – Minnesota Chapter Meeting w/ Sam Stovall, CFP
Process of Chapter Meetings on the administration side:
- Registration will be the same as with live face-to-face meetings
- Registration will close two hours before each event
- An email will be sent one hour in advance of meetings with call-in/link
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Barbara Terry
Barbara Terry is the TAN Association's volunteer coordinator, based in New York. She has close to 20 years of experience in large-scale project management and account management roles, and is an invaluable resource for the TAN Association's event planning team. Barbara...
Member Interview
Please tell us what you do professionally.
I head a boutique behavioral consulting partnership called Koubaras Ltd, in Cyprus and Greece. We offer management services, corporate finance and estate planning.
How did you get there?
During my time in high school, I was lucky enough to meet a professor at Athens University of Economics and Business, so I worked towards my first degree in business administration (1988). It was followed by an MBA with Marketing specialization (1990) and then I started serving my military service in the Greek Navy. Once again, my good angel was there and when I decided to work in parallel, a fellow MBA colleague introduced me to my first boss, Phaedon Tamvakakis at Alpha Trust Investment Services.
Finally, completing my studies, I earned my PhD in Behavioral Economics from University of Thessaly in 2006.
Who was an early mentor in your career?
Phaedon Tamvakakis was and still is my mentor. His work
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Theodore N. Krintas, Ph.D
Theodore Krintas is a C-level executive working in finance and technology industries since 1991. Experienced in developing, growing and expanding businesses, has closely worked with some legends of both industries in Greece and enjoys the appreciation of his colleagues and...
Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary
The Twin Cities Chapter was pleased to host Doug Ramsey, CFA CMT, as our guest speaker for our May 19th meeting. Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of the Leuthold Group. For some context, the S&P 500 was near 2900 on May 19th.
Doug highlighted the unique nature of this decline, which was caused by a “sudden stop” of economic activity due to pandemic shutdowns. The sharp recovery reflects the view that business activity will recover as businesses continue to reopen throughout May and June. Prior to the downturn, the yield curve, credit spreads, and other leading economic indicators had been warning of a cyclical decline.
During the decline, equity valuations remained higher on March 23rd than the highest historical bear market lows. Doug was troubled by the idea that a bear market bottom could be formed at such a high valuation level within the first month of a decline. However, all
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Mahesh Johari, CFA
Mahesh Johari is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area. He holds degress in mathematics and economics from the University of Illinois and the University of
"Wall Street Bound” Founder Connects Students With Finance Opportunities
Troy Prince, CAIA, is a member of the TAN Association community and CEO of the nonprofit organization Wall Street Bound, recently featured on CNBC. Wall Street Bound seeks to connect underserved young adults in urban areas with the financial training and internship experience they need to land entry-level jobs in the industry.
“We know that talent and IQ is equally distributed,” said Prince in a recent CNBC interview. “Opportunity is not.”
“This demographic, they do have the innate hunger [and] behavioral and cognitive abilities to succeed [… ] It is only a matter of connecting them with the opportunities through education and access,” Prince added. Wall Street Bound works with recent graduates and college students to develop the technical skills required to succeed as data and equity analysts, discretionary & quant traders and investors.
Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, featured Troy Prince on his blog earlier this month to discuss some
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Marianna Tessello
Marianna Tessello serves as the TAN Association's web
Membership News
Members on the Move
The TAN Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:
Michael A. Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management
Ehtesham Khan, CMT, Founder RoboCaprahul Mudliar, Algo Strategy Quant at Tradetron
While working from home due, please take a few minutes to update your information at the TAN Association website.
CMT
Standard registration is open for the December 2020 test administration until August 31, 2020.
If you need assistance registering for a CMT exam, please email info@tanassociation.org; in the email include your first and last name, and the exam for which you are registering.
Online remote proctoring for all levels of the TAN exams is now available, for more information about remote proctoring, please click on the following link: https://cmtassociation.org/chartered-market-technician/cmt-exams-remote-proctoring/.
Should you need assistance with scheduling/rescheduling your exam, please email your questions to info@tanassociation.org. Please include your first and last name and the exam you want to schedule in
To view this content you must be an active member of the TAN Association.
Not a member? Join the TAN Association and unlock access to hundreds of hours of written and video technical analysis content, including the Journal of Technical Analysis and the Video Archives. Learn more about Membership here.
Contributor(s)
Marie Penza
Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT
New Educational Content This Month
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August 26, 2020
The CMT Experience
Presenter(s): Tyler Wood, Dave Lundgren, CMT, CFA
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August 26, 2020
Reading the Current Market in Light of History’s Lessons
Presenter(s): Ryan Detrick, CMT
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August 12, 2020
How to Spot Major Trend Reversals with Elliott Waves and Socionomics: Examples from Asia’s Ongoing Secular Bull Market
Presenter(s): Mark Galasiewski