This is your association and it is important that you let us know what you think.

Let me ask an important question: What do you think about the TAN Association, and would you please take the time to share your thoughts with us?

Why do I ask?  We, as an organization, want to get better at serving our members’ needs.  We want to be responsive as possible to what is happening in your world, literally!

This is not just idle talk. We mean it.

While our Board is forward-thinking and has good intentions, our plan for the future is solid and our staff is competently executing our plan, we don’t know everything at the grass roots level. We do our best but our intelligence can be incomplete.  That’s where we need your help.  That’s why we need you to take this request seriously. 

There’s only one ground rule – think BIG!  How could we better

The New York chapter of the TAN Association met October 18, 2018 with featured speaker Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA, Managing Director and Senior Technical Research Analyst at Piper Jaffray. He is also Chapter Chair of the Minnesota Chapter and a past President of the TAN Association. The Dow closed at 25,379 that day and the S&P 500 closed at 2769.

Craig was able to set aside some time from his busy trip to stop by the TAN Association NY office and fill us in on some of his most recent work. After being bullish for the vast majority of the longest bull market on record, Craig has been looking for some more volatility this past year. This is based on a number of concerns.

Fixed Income: Treasury yields put in a double bottom on long term charts and rising rates will now act as a headwind if the speed of the rise

Originally published August 2000

Last month, I examined the parallels between flying and trading; especially how the process of judgment is identical for pilots and traders.  I also introduced “The Five Hazardous Attitudes” that each of us possess to some degree, as well as how to deal with the hazardous attitudes that affect us individually.

This month, I will examine the three factors that comprise the “Judgment Environment,” or the framework within which pilots and traders make decisions.  I will focus closely on the “human factors” and introduce a method to evaluate the status of our individual readiness for decision-making on any given day.

The Judgment Environment

There are three aspects to the framework pilots and traders operate within to make decisions.  The first is Environmental; those things that define or affect the big picture, such as the weather for a pilot or the markets for traders.  The second aspect is Mechanical; things that

As we approach the next administration of the TAN exams, here are a few reminders for our candidates.

• By now, you should have reserved your seat at a test center near you. If not, do so as soon as possible.  Contact the TAN Association staff if you need assistance.
• Time allotted for the exams is two hours for Level I and four hours for Levels II and III. (There are some extra notes for Level III candidates in the CMT Candidate Network.
• Questions on the Levels I and II exams are all multiple choice. Level III has some multiple-choice questions but is mostly short answer.
• The results of the Levels I and II exams are scheduled for release the week of January 16. We understand that candidates are anxious for the results, but this delay is important in reviewing and verifying the exams.  Level III results will be released in late January, following

While TAN Association members know the value of technical analysis, there are still many areas of the money management business that do not hold the same opinion. Little do their clients know that many managers and the outsourced advisors on which they rely are closet technicians.

I cannot speak for others but here is how we incorporate technical analysis in our investment advisory process, especially within the context of a business cycle framework. 

First, we start with fundamental valuations to determine the current position in the secular market cycle. However, we apply technical indicators (where price is the numerator), including cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios and price to revenue indicators, to determine the current trend of those valuations, and relative positions to long-term rolling median values.

Next, we analyze Fed policy. We look at moving averages of the yield curve between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries to determine the trend in the curve.  It

The Minnesota chapter met on Ralph Acampora’s farm on October 28. It was a wonderful time to relax, take in “tons of history,” enjoy a fantastic BBQ meal, visit with the horses and network with all of our great local members.

We started Ralph’s “tour of history” by walking down a path in front of the exterior north metal wall of his barn – it is 70 feet long by 16 feet high and exhibits the largest hand-painted chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in history (it appeared in a Wall Street Journal article, dated October 18, 2017). Specifically, it was a monthly bar chart that also depicted the seven recessions, ten Presidents, a 48-month moving average and three historic events per year, between 1967 and 2017.

It ended with the Dow literally “going thru the roof” when it crossed the 23,000 level. In 1967 the Dow traded in the 900

Members on the Move

The TAN Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

• Cesar Diaz-Loyo, Head Trader at Bendio AG, and Visiting Professor at IESA
• Foram Chheda, CMT, Technical Research Analyst at Investment advisory
• Jason Money, MBA, CMT, Senior Manager at E*TRADE
• Nerisha Farquharson, CFAs Acting Chief Investment Officer at PROVEN Management Limited

CMT News

If you plan to take a CMT Exam during the December 2018 test administration, registration is open until November 9^th.

As of today, 1,079 candidates have registered for the exam, which is a record number of candidates.

If you go to Prometric (link below) to schedule your exam and there are no seats available at your chosen test center, please email Marie Penza at marie@cmtassociation.org and she will contact Prometric on your behalf.   

If you cannot locate your confirmation from Prometric that contains the date, time and location of the test center, email Marie Penza at marie@cmtassociation.org and