I don’t think there is much need to recap the events that are unfolding in the stock and bond markets (oil, too). And it would not make much sense, either, because any one of these asset classes could either blow up or melt up in between this writing and its publication (I am writing this Saturday, March 7).

You saw stocks basically collapse on the “excuse” of a possible pandemic. I say excuse because we all know that January was a bit extended, over this and under that. You fill in your own blanks.

This is not to say that the effects of the virus will not affect the economy for quite some time. And, of course, there is no sugarcoating the human toll, either.

And then there are bonds. The last trading day before I wrote this saw a monster gap up after a monster rally to historically low yields with an

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies did a video conference presentation for the Minnesota chapter on February 18, 2020.  Prior to founding Fairlead Strategies, LLC, Katie was Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners.  Some context around her visit: on February 18th, the S&P 500 was near its peak and it fell by more than 10% over the next 10 days. 

She noted on Feb. 18th that the S&P 500 was in an uptrend and within a minor breakout to new highs.  Stochastics were overbought and short- term momentum was up.  Her measured move target from the 2019 S&P 500 chart was just under 3500.  She highlighted underperformance in equal-weighted benchmarks and the Russell 2000, but she was seeing some countertrend buy signals in the Russell 2000.

Katie takes a “top-down” approach to technical analysis.  She starts by examining macro influences, including major indexes, interest rates, commodities, etc. 

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I started in sales, then transitioned to back office jobs in the investment industry for the first eight years of my career. From there, I was Chief Technical Analyst CIBC World Markets for 12 years. And for the past 13 years, I’ve been a portfolio manager at my firm ETF Capital Management, managing $1.5 billion.

How did you get there?

Hard work. I did the then-MTA’s Internship program in 1994, then got involved with the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysts), the TAN Association, and IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts). I was President of the CSTA from 1998-2000 and President of the TAN Association from 2009-2010.

Networking played a big part in my career. My formal schooling was a base. As you know, we need to build on a base before it breaks out. The TAN Association was a giant base for my career.

Who was an