TAN Association

“Wall Street Bound” Founder Connects Students With Finance Opportunities

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 18 Jun 2020 16:14:32 +0000

June 16, 2020 — Troy Prince, CAIA, is a member of the TAN Association community and CEO of the nonprofit organization Wall Street Bound, recently featured on CNBC. Wall Street Bound seeks to connect underserved young adults in urban areas with the financial training and internship experience they need to land entry-level jobs in the industry.

“We know that talent and IQ is equally distributed,” said Prince in a recent CNBC interview. “Opportunity is not.”

“This demographic, they do have the innate hunger [and] behavioral and cognitive abilities to succeed [… ] It is only a matter of connecting them with the opportunities through education and access,” Prince added. Wall Street Bound works with recent graduates and college students to develop the technical skills required to succeed as data and equity analysts, discretionary & quant traders and investors.

Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, featured Troy Prince on his blog earlier this month to discuss some of the challenges faced by the majority-minority communities that are the target of Wall Street Bound’s outreach.

“A lot of people say they want to see change, and more equality of opportunity. Troy is someone who is actually doing something about it,” concluded Brown. “He is looking for mentorship from professionals as well as financial support from people who think this is a good cause.”

You can find more information about Wall Street Bound on the organization’s website, https://wallstreetbound.org/, or by watching this recent CNBC feature or Josh Brown’s blog post.

Multiple CMT Charterholders Win Technical Analyst Magazine Awards

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 04 May 2020 21:50:56 +0000

MAY 4, 2020 — The TAN Association is proud to recognize several CMT Charterholders among the winners and finalists of this year’s Technical Analyst Awards, presented by the Technical Analyst magazine.

Notably, the Association is proud of Gautam Shah, CMT, who was named Technical Analyst of the year; John Kolovos, CMT, whose firm Macro Risk Advisors was recognized as the Best Institutional Brokerage for Equity Research; Aazan Habib, CMT, whose firm, Haywood Securities, was named as providing Best Multi-Asset Research; Ron William, CMT, who was a joint winner of the Best FX Research Award; and Ari Wald, CMT, who led Oppenheimer & Co. to the title of Best Equity Research.

The Association is also honored by the familiarity of many award finalists. CMT Charterholders and their firms competed against each other in nearly all categories, and the sheer caliber of research under consideration for recognition is a reflection of the quality individuals and research taking place within the Association.

Find the full list of award winners on the Technical Analyst website: Winners and Finalists.

Rob Koyfman Pens Optimistic Forecast

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 22 Apr 2020 21:01:58 +0000

Rob Koyfman, founder of Koyfin Charts, wrote a lengthy forecast on Monday making the case for a continued bull market based on the “reflation” efforts of the Fed.

“The most powerful part of technical analysis is that it removes your emotions from the equation and helps you understand what the market is saying. Technical analysis separates what SHOULD happen based on fundamental projections from what IS happening. Currently, the market is loudly saying the Fed Bazooka worked to turn the tide, and risk assets are going higher,” argued Koyfman. “When the Fed is effectively reflating the economy, the most cyclical assets in the market break their downtrend and start forming uptrends.”

He urged caution, however, noting that while “the bullish view outlined above is currently supported by technical analysis, it can change with the circumstances.”

“As many investors and CEOs have said, this environment is like nothing we’ve ever seen.”

Read the full article here: The Money Printer Goes Brrrr And The Bull Case Grows Stronger

Members In The Media Roundup

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 27 Mar 2020 21:33:38 +0000

Over the past few weeks, CMT charterholders around the world have continued to advise clients and the general public about technical market attributes, likening recent events to past market routs and rebounds while serving as trusted sources of financial planning information. We’re proud to collect a handful of those who were featured in major news outlets below. If you are a member or CMT charterholder who is quoted in a major news outlet, feel free to tag @CMTAssociation in any social media post featuring a link to the work you are quoted in, or send an email to news@cmtassociation.org.

Jurien Timmer – CNBC Analyst Calls for Government to End Dow Jones Slide

Ari Wald – Small caps at four-year lows, and trader warns of ‘more pain’

Keith Lerner – Markets Make Some Investors Think Recession, Perhaps Depression

Stephen Suttmeier – This was the fastest 30% stock market decline ever

Gina Martin Adams – Doug Ramsey’s Best Case for Stocks and Other Views of the Future

Katie Stockton – When Will the S&P 500 Bottom? Stock Market Experts Say It Could Hit This Number Before Stabilizing.

Rich Ross – Late S&P 500 Rout Sinks Stocks Below Christmas 2018 Support Line

TAN Association Announces Tom DeMark As 2020 Annual Award Recipient

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 02 Mar 2020 15:58:57 +0000

NEW YORK, NY (March 2, 2020) – The TAN Association, the leading organization for Technical Analysis professionals and the governing body for the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is proud to announce Tom DeMark as the 2020 winner of the prestigious Annual Award.

Established in 1974, the Annual Award does not recognize a single accomplishment but rather acknowledges a career that includes a great deal of research and contributions to the discipline of technical analysis. The Award is an inspiration for many and has recognized dozens of technicians for their outstanding accomplishments in the field.

“This award is the highest honor bestowed by the TAN Association, recognizing the lifetime achievements of innovators in our field. We are proud to celebrate Tom DeMark for his impact on the investment industry at the highest levels,” said Ralph Acampora, CMT, co-founder of the TAN Association.

Mr. DeMark will be honored during the 2020 Annual Symposium on April 1-3, 2020. Celebrating the rich history of technical analysis and inducting the 2020 TAN Association honorees is a powerful aspect of connecting members of the global association.

When asked what this recognition means to his career, Mr. DeMark said, “I am truly honored to receive such a distinguished award from the TAN Association. To say it is a highlight of my five-decade research career is certainly an understatement. This recognition is the culmination of my relentless pursuit to decode and anticipate market price behavior. I am most humbled and appreciative to be included within the ranks of many great market timing pioneers.”

The TAN Association is striving to further the profession with diverse opportunities in continuing education, advocacy, ethics awareness, and networking as we continue to advance the discipline and expand the reach of the TAN Association around the world.

For details about the 47^th Annual Symposium please visit https://cmtassociation.org/events/symposium/

For more information about the Association and TAN Program, please visit www.cmtassociation.org.

About DeMARK Analytics

DeMARK Analytics comprises a team of experienced professionals devoted to successfully timing financial markets. For nearly five decades, DeMARK and its clients have relied upon the DeMARK Indicators® to identify and capitalize upon market opportunities. DeMARK’s unique approach to market timing allows users to anticipate price activity across any asset class, region, time interval and data set, assisting with idea generation, position sizing, portfolio construction and risk management. As a result, the work is trusted by the most respected financial firms, funds and figures in the world.

In 2008, DeMARK Analytics partnered with John Burbank of Passport Capital and Steve Cohen of Point72 Asset Management to extend the distribution and knowledge base of the DeMark Indicators and expand the company’s market research and development efforts.

DeMARK Analytics offers its proprietary indicators exclusively on the Bloomberg, CQG and DeMARK Prime platforms, as well as its newest web-based financial charting and analytics application, Symbolik® by DeMARK®. For more information, please visit www.demark.com or www.symbolik.com.

CMT Memorial Award, Service Award, And Recognition Award Recipients Announced

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 26 Feb 2020 21:05:04 +0000

NEW YORK, NY (February 26, 2020) – The TAN Association, the leading organization for Technical Analysis professionals and the governing body for the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, announced today the winners of a trio of awards honoring contributions to the discipline of Technical Analysis.

Ken Tower, CMT is the recipient of the Service Award, which recognizes volunteers and staff that drive the advancement of technical analysis. Ken, who is a past president and a longtime volunteer within the TAN Association, has been an outspoken advocate for the TAN Program for nearly 30 years. Ken was also part of the team that persuaded FINRA to recognize the passage of CMT exam levels I and II as a Series 86 exemption.

Yale Hirsch will receive the 2020 Recognition Award, in honor of more than fifty years of meaningful contributions and advocacy within the investment industry. Yale conceived the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968 to provide strategic technical information to investors; decades later, it remains a well-respected and widely referenced investment resource for today’s analysts and traders.

The legacy of Justin Mamis will be recognized with the Memorial Award, to commemorate the decades he spent writing several well-regarded technical analysis books as well as his weekly research newsletter. Justin’s When to Sell, followed by How to Buy and The Nature of Risk helped educate a generation of analysts, teaching that a carefully selected assortment of indicators should be used to delineate tendencies, reveal shifts, identify trends, and make positioning decisions.

These award recipients will be honored during the 2020 Annual Symposium on April 2-3, 2020. Celebrating the rich history of technical analysis and inducting the 2020 TAN Association honorees is a powerful aspect of connecting members of the global association. You can secure your registration to the Symposium today by visiting our Symposium page.

Chris Cain, CMT And Larry Connors Announced As 2020 Dow Award Winners

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 26 Feb 2020 16:24:45 +0000

NEW YORK, NY (February 16, 2020) — The TAN Association announced on Friday that Chris Cain, CMT and Laurence Connors, of Connors Research LLC, are the 2020 winners of the TAN Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award.

The pair received the Dow Award for their research, entitled “Quantamentals – Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis in a Quantitative Framework for Better Investment Results,” a paper that demonstrates a unique approach to the application of technical analysis. They will be honored during the TAN Association’s 2020 Annual Symposium on April 2-3, 2020.

In addition to receiving the award recognition, Mr. Cain and Mr. Connors will give a presentation on the topic of “Quantamentals” during the 2020 Annual Symposium. Attendees will have the opportunity to learn firsthand about the development and implementation of this winning strategy, ask questions, and think critically about their own approach in the context of this new research.

Mr. Cain and Mr. Connors demonstrated that a combination of investment styles including fundamental and technical analysis within a quantitative, rules-based framework led to greatly improved performance. They also discovered that identifying known factors in their model led to increased performance over the course of the last 16 years.

The winning paper will be available to read in full on the TAN Association website after its publication in the Spring 2020 edition of the Journal of Technical Analysis, which will be published in early March. The archives of previous award-winning papers are also accessible on the Dow Award page.

Since 1994, the TAN Association has presented the Charles H. Dow Award for excellence and creativity in technical analysis. This Award represents the most significant competition for recognition in the field of technical analysis. The papers honored with the Award have historically represented the richness and depth of the technical analysis discipline.

John Kosar, CMT Calls Market Top, Offers Commentary On Future Growth

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 10 Feb 2020 17:25:24 +0000

John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research, noted an accurate call of January’s market top in Forbes last week while offering his commentary on the S&P 500’s future growth potential.

Of the top, Kosar wrote that January’s “sharp decline pushed the index right into underlying support at S&P 500 3212 to 3205 on January 31st. This level had to hold for SPX’s current tactical uptrend — which has been in effect since October 2019 — to remain intact,” as shown in the chart above.

Citing the forecast of Asbury’s Cross Asset Relative Performance (CARP) model, Kosar expressed caution. “[E]ven though the stock market appears to have just avoided a downside correction and has come roaring back, it remains historically overextended while our CARP Model indicates some investor apprehension. We see this as an environment to remain invested, but to keep a closer-than-normal eye on the market — and your holdings — with an exit plan in place just in case this investor apprehension turns into another, more meaningful corrective decline,” he said.

Read the whole article here: Stock Market Heads Off A Correction—For Now.

Ned Davis Quoted In Marketwatch Article On P/E Ratio

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 16 Jan 2020 17:09:16 +0000

Ned Davis was quoted in a Marketwatch article last weekend musing about the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio and price relative to sales, concluding that the index is relatively overvalued by those measures.

The above chart, from Ned Davis Research, shows that price relative to sales for the S&P 500 is at a record high, “well in excess of what they were in 2000 or 2007 at those peaks,” Davis said.

“One caveat to these analyses is that they don’t take into account the effects of interest rates,” points out Marketwatch reporter Chris Matthews. “The average effective Fed funds rate since 1964 is about 5.2%, versus 1.6% today, and one might expect equity valuations to be significantly higher when fixed income investments are yielding so little.”

Davis added that the S&P could be overstating earnings because of corporate buybacks and other financial engineering methods. Even when taking into account the ratio of market valuations to overall profits, however, “P/E ratios are some 80% above the long-term norm,” said Davis.

You can read the full article here: The S&P 500 is now more overvalued than ever, per this measure.

Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA Authors See It Market Piece On S&P Trend

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 21:07:10 +0000

William Delwiche, CMT, CFA published an article in See It Market on Friday discussing the ongoing upward movement displayed in the S&P 500, as illustrated above.

Delwiche, a portfolio manager at RW Baird, articulated that “[W]e need to watch how situations in the markets and the economy actually develop over the course of the year.”

“Overall, breadth is improving and is providing the stock market with a bullish tailwind. It does not appear to have reached levels that appear exhaustive from a longer-term perspective,” Delwiche said.

He continued, “Presidential election years tend to have a positive bias, although the opportunity for gains is best in the wake of the election (or at least once the election outcome appears fairly certain). Renewed geopolitical uncertainties could add to the customary election-related noise and add to volatility heading toward mid-year.”

Read the full article on See It Market: S&P 500 Trends Argue for Continued Stock Market Strength.

Andy Wong, CMT Featured On Bloomberg TV

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 02 Jan 2020 18:01:18 +0000

Andy Wong, CMT, was interviewed on Bloomberg TV on Monday, sharing his opinion on the outlook for Chinese technology stocks and the sector at large.

“We noticed that the Chinese economy has been stabilizing, and also we noticed that domestic consumption and Chinese business confidence levels are quite healthy,” said Wong. “That’s why we believe that maybe earlier, the market was too pessimistic about the economy.”

He went on to explain why he believes Huawei, Samsung Electronics and others are good long-term choices, including names associated with 5G infrastructure and online commerce.

“Thinking about different sectors, ZTE goes across 5G infrastructure and is also a mobile phone supplier,” Wong pointed out.

You can watch the full interview online here: China Tech, 5G Stocks Favored by Andy Wong of LW Asset Management

Robert W. Colby, CMT, Interviewed In Stocks & Commodities Magazine

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 23 Dec 2019 17:31:46 +0000

A lengthy interview with Robert W. Colby, CMT, was published in the January 2020 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Leslie N. Masonson conducted the interview, which is eight pages long and includes several highlights touching on Colby’s use of technical analysis over the course of his career, last month.

On one topic, the role that sentiment, seasonal and cyclical indicators play in his investment strategy, Colby observed, “these are supplemental studies that give interesting and sometimes useful background information, but they are not practical for signal generation and trade timing because they easily can be overwhelmed by trend and momentum. They can be too early or too late. For example, the majority of investors have been bullish most of the time for more than 10 years, but a short-selling contrarian would have had a rough time due to trend persistence. Cycle lengths shift around over time, and so cycle dates need price confirmation. The famously bullish fourth quarter seasonal tendencies would have hurt you in 2007 and 2018. As for economic data, the stock market is a leading economic indicator, typically turning six to nine months ahead of the economy, so economic indicators are late. Monetary indicators can be early or late. Although not useful for trade signals, these indicators are helpful for understanding the background that may drive the larger price trends.”

You can read the full interview on Stocks & Commodities’ website: A Discussion with Robert W. Colby, CMT.

MoneyControl Interviews Vishal Mehta, CMT

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 03 Dec 2019 19:15:03 +0000

MoneyControl magazine featured an interview with Vishal Mehta, CMT, on Monday, detailing the difficulties and successes in his journey from discretionary trading to systems trading. Vishal (pictured above) co-chairs the Mumbai Chapter of the TAN Association, which he describes in the interview as one of his benchmark achievements.

“Passionate about technical analysis and trading, he can be seen networking at the Investor Carnival in Goa, with other traders,” wrote Shishir Asthana, who interviewed him for the piece. “[Vishal’s] story exemplifies the fact that it is not only the knowledge of technical analysis that is important to be a good trader but the mental discipline to take blows and stand up to fight again in the market.”

You can read the full interview on MoneyControl.com: How Vishal Mehta undertook a journey from discretionary to system trading for consistent gains.

Steve Deppe, CMT, Speaks On Behavioral Adherence In Proactive Advisor Magazine

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 02 Dec 2019 16:41:28 +0000

Steve Deppe, CMT, authored an article featured in Proactive Advisor Magazine last month on the wisdom of adherence to a sound investment strategy.

“We need to help our clients first fall in love with the process, or investment policy, embracing the good, the bad, and the ugly. This is important because exercising maniacal discipline in adhering to the process is the only way for the past performance of any portfolio to actually become future results,” Deppe wrote.

“I call this ‘behavioral adherence,’ and it is critical to investing successfully over the full market cycle. I believe our most important responsibility as financial advisors and proactive investment managers is to help our clients optimize behavioral adherence.”

Read the full article online here: Why it’s critical to teach clients the importance of ‘behavioral adherence’

TAN Association Celebrates Members In Institutional Investor Magazine Rankings

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 16 Oct 2019 16:12:01 +0000

NEW YORK, NY (Wednesday, October 16, 2019) – The TAN Association is pleased to announce its strong representation in Institutional Investor Magazine’s 2019 All-American Research Team rankings for technical analysis. Out of the top ten analysts named in the technical analysis ranking category, seven are members of the TAN Association, with six of the seven holding the coveted Chartered Market Technician® (CMT) designation.

“This representation is well-deserved,” said Scott Richter, President of the TAN Association. “We’re proud to recognize the talents of our membership and honored that Institutional Investor’s rankings reflect this talent.”

CMT charterholders represented in the ranking include Richard Ross, CMT, in first place; Christopher Verrone, CMT, in third place; Jeffrey deGraaf, CMT, in fourth place; Stephen Suttmeier, CMT, in fifth place; Ari Wald, CMT, in eighth place; and Craig W. Johnson, CMT, in tenth place. TAN Association Affiliate Member Jason Hunter featured in seventh place. The entire list of 2019 All-American Research Team rankings can be found here.

Over the last few decades, the TAN Program has emerged as the leading professional designation for active investment managers and practitioners of technical analysis. “Particularly during periods of sentiment swings and market volatility, investment professionals that are able to mitigate portfolio risk stand to benefit clients and firms with better risk adjusted returns,” said Stan Dash, CMT and Managing Director of the TAN Program. “CMT charterholders can bring that value to our industry.”

The TAN designation marks the highest education within the discipline of technical analysis and is the preeminent designation for practitioners of technical analysis worldwide. Earning this designation demonstrates mastery of a core body of knowledge of investment risk in portfolio management; candidates in the TAN Program must pass a rigorous series of tests before earning the approval of the Association’s Admissions Committee and becoming active CMT Charterholders.

Stephen Suttmeier, CMT, CFA Optimistic in CNBC Comments

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 10 Oct 2019 16:46:27 +0000

Stephen Suttmeier, CMT, CFA was featured on CNBC’s Trading Nation on Tuesday with several strategic comments that skewed optimistic on his outlook for the S&P 500 in October.

“Generally speaking, market breadth indicators have been fairly constructive, and we’re still in this weaker seasonal period. So … the weaker seasonality has given us the trick,” Suttmeier said. “But seasonality gets a lot better in November on a three-month and six-month basis going back to 1928. I think that’s where the treat comes in.”

He theorized that, unless there was a significant increase in the amount of negative macroeconomic data reported, the market should strengthen going into the new year.

“We think this resolves to the upside, meaning going to new highs, and if that happens, we think we could hit that 3,100 area,” Suttmeier said. “That triangle pattern itself would suggest there’s actually upside towards that 3,200 area if that bullish seasonality kicks in on the S&P.”

Read all of his comments, including the one thing he things might spell trouble, in the full article: New highs are in store for the S&P 500 this year according to this chart, says top strategist.

Lee Bohl, CMT, Featured In Charles Schwab’s Community Magazine

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 07 Oct 2019 17:44:41 +0000

Lee Bohl, CMT, was featured in the Fall 2019 issue of On Investing, the quarterly community publication for Charles Schwab clients, with an article he authored on a classic technical analysis topic: how to identify head-and-shoulders patterns, like the kind in the illustration above.

“In my experience, those new to technical analysis tend to see head-and-shoulders patterns everywhere. That’s why taking the time to confirm signals, such as volume and the time frame of the preceding trends, is usually worth it. After a while, it will get easier to separate the heads and shoulders from the head fakes,” said Bohl, instructing readers to look for several basic pattern components before declaring a definite head-and-shoulders formation and setting stops.

“[Use] some of the same risk-management tools that are part of your regular trading plan,” he urged in the article.

Read the full article on Charles Schwab’s On Investing website: Identifying Head-And-Shoulders Patterns in Stock Charts.

Stocks & Commodities Magazine Interviews Mark Newton, CMT For October Issue

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 25 Sep 2019 17:27:30 +0000

A long-form interview with Mark Newton, CMT, is featured in the upcoming October issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. S&C Contributor Karl Montevirgen asked a series of questions pertaining to Newton’s use of technical tools in his work, noting that Newton’s degree coursework was much more fundamentally-oriented, and observed that Newton uses an extensive suite of tools in his published analysis.

“Honestly, I try to keep things as simple as possible,” said Newman. “I do tend to favor momentum over anything else. I do think that traditional chart patterns stand the test of time. So instead of trying to buy something based on, say, a moving average being hit or a crossover of certain moving averages, I almost always lean on using trendlines in my analysis, both static arithmetic trendlines as well as price and time trendlines. So I would say pattern analysis is number one in terms of my approach.”

On his trading style, he adds: “I’m much more of a position or swing trader than I am a daytrader or scalper. I tend to be a bit tactical. I try to find something that will trend or that will work for maybe two to three weeks. I’m much more apt to follow the trend versus trying to take the other side of a move intraday.”

Read the whole article online: A Technical Narrative With Mark Newton.

Tina Normann, CMT, Featured In Financial Post With Cannabis Investment Comments

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 19 Sep 2019 19:33:51 +0000

Tina Normann, CMT, of Eight Capital Equity Research, was featured in the Canadian Financial Post on Monday with comments on how several companies within the cannabis industry are faring relative to other healthcare companies.

“[She] noted that the beta of cannabis stocks has recently spiked to around 2.0 from a range of 1.4 to 1.6, meaning they’re likely to post outsized moves in whatever direction the market is heading,” said Bloomberg’s Kristine Owram.

“As such, greater stability in the overall equity market, combined with sector-specific catalysts across the Canadian, U.S. and CBD markets, offer the potential for the cannabis sector to achieve outsized returns relative to other equities for the remainder of the calendar year,” wrote Normann in a recent note.

Read the whole story here: Short sellers cash in on cannabis as investors get fed-up with money-losing companies.

George Schade, CMT, Publishes Biography Of Richard W. Schabacker

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:55:21 +0000

George A. Schade Jr., CMT, recently released a biography of former Forbes editor and financial writer Richard W. Schabacker. Published by Outskirts Press, The New Era of The Booming 1920s And Its Aftermath: The Biography of Visionary Financial Writer Richard W. Schabacker thoroughly examines the stock market climate of a century ago, telling the story of Schabacker’s contributions to technical analysis and financial writing.

“He articulated [that] … central technical postulates such as prices weigh all the factors that exert themselves to move security markets, and certain patterns, resulting when particular conditions prevail, that in the past forecasted definite trends should continue to forecast future trends,” said Schade in a statement. “He saw the logic of technical studies in the principle that stock prices move in trends that are more likely to continue than to reverse. Much of what he wrote about is part of today’s investment management practices.”

Schabacker, who served as Forbes’ financial editor for close to a decade, was the author of two groundbreaking books on technical analysis, as well as a course text and numerous columns which laid the foundation for chart analysis in the 20th century.

Learn more about the book on Amazon: The New Era of The Booming 1920s And Its Aftermath.

Todd Stankiewicz, CMT, CFP, ChFC Named To Forbes Best-In-State “Next Gen” Advisors List

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 16 Sep 2019 16:52:44 +0000

Todd Stankiewicz, CMT, CFP, ChFC was named to Forbes’ 2019 list of “Next Generation” Best-In-State Wealth Advisors on Monday. The Next Gen Advisors list differs from Forbes’ ordinary Best-In-State Wealth Advisors list in that it exclusively features advisors who were born after 1980.

“With an average tenure of over 12 years for these advisors, there’s a reason millions of families are entrusting their future with this group: they have proven that they stand among the very best in wealth management,” said researcher RJ Shook in a statement detailing the list’s methodology. “Sandwiched between generations, these advisors are eagerly sought by the industry to best serve families.”

“It’s such an honor to be recognized, so thank you!” said Stankiewicz. “My team … strives to acquire a deep and thorough understanding of our clients needs, objectives and risk profiles, and bring the full breadth of our team’s investment strategies, skills and service to manage the client’s standard of living risk.”

Todd Stankiewicz is a Vice President at Merrill Private Wealth Management in New York.

You can find the full ranking on Forbes: Best-In-State Next-Gen Advisors.

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Featured In CNBC, USA Today’s September Market Forecast

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 04 Sep 2019 21:38:13 +0000

Ryan Detrick, CMT, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, was featured in a USA Today article on Tuesday playing up September’s reputation as a volatile month for markets, but advising that volatility wasn’t necessarily a bad omen considering historic returns over the course of the past decade.

“[The] S&P 500 index has actually performed pretty well in September, turning in an average gain of 0.9%,” Detrick is quoted as saying. “August was a burst of volatility for most investors, and we expect that to continue in September.”

“History shows stocks have overcome the volatility,” he added.

Detrick was also featured in a CNBC segment on Tuesday, echoing that sentiment.

Watch the CNBC segment here: Stocks could be in for a September ‘surprise’ despite historically bad trading.

Read the full article on USA Today: Good riddance to August, but September could be just as bumpy for stocks, history shows.

Frank Cappelleri, CMT And Andrew Thrasher, CMT Featured On CNBC

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 07 Aug 2019 17:18:37 +0000

In the wake of Monday’s steep market decline, both Andrew Thrasher, CMT and Frank Cappelleri, CMT were featured on CNBC Tuesday as part of a roundup of several analysts positing that stocks had farther to fall before recovering.

“Since the May low, the comeback has produced a number of bullish formations,” said Cappelleri. This current sell-off “has been so sharp, what’s going to have to happen is to watch the ensuing bounce and see how strong or not it is. … It’s interesting because some of these moves are some of the largest we’ve seen all year.”

However, “I’m not seeing major signs of capitulation just yet,” said Thrasher, adding that he didn’t quite anticipate a sell-off as sharp as December 2018.

Read their entire commentary, as well as input from Tony Dwyer, in the full article: ‘Not yet over’ — stocks have further to fall before the selling subsides, say chart analysts.

Brandon Wendell, CMT, Tracks Buy-And-Hold Effectiveness On TradingAcademy

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 06 Aug 2019 14:43:16 +0000

Brandon Wendell, CMT, was featured on TradingAcademy’s blog last week with a discussion of the long-term effectiveness of “buy and hold” as a strategy.

“[W]e are likely to return to a market environment filled with large price swings both up and down,” writes Wendell. “While this is great for the active investor who times the tops and bottoms, it is disastrous for the buy and hold investor.”

“So, the evidence is pointing toward a future market environment that does not work well for buy and hold but rather benefits from an active investment approach. This type of market requires more attention and education in order to spot and take advantage of the market swings. Those who choose to ignore these moves, could have zero or negative returns for the foreseeable future,” Wendell adds.

Read his whole post, including several illustration charts, here: Is Buy and Hold Dead?

TAN Association Collaborates With TAPMI Manipal As An Academic Partner

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 02 Aug 2019 14:32:49 +0000

New York, NY & Mumbai, India (August 1, 2019) – The TAN Association is proud to announce its new partnership with T.A. Pai Management Institute Manipal through TAPMI’s inclusion in the TAN Association’s Academic Partner Program.

Selection for the TAN Association’s Academic Partner Program signifies TAPMI Manipal’s commitment to its students’ career readiness and applied learning. Institutions in the Academic Partner Program demonstrate academic rigor in financial courses ranging from quantitative methodologies to behavioral finance, as well as portfolio management and other key aspects of technical analysis.

With this partnership, the two institutions illustrate an innovative solution to the growing demand for student education and career preparedness, while advocating for the advancement of technical analysis in India. Technical analysis, which is a crucial part of investment and trading decisions, has evolved over hundreds of years. While modern technical analysis retains its roots in classical observations of market behavior, it extends beyond pattern recognition to employ groundbreaking quantitative methodologies and rules-based trading-system design and testing.

“Students will have the opportunity to enroll in the TAN Program and learn the intricacies of technical analysis while preparing for their own career at a reduced fee,” said Alvin Kressler, CEO & Executive Director at the TAN Association. “This partnership between the TAN Association and TAPMI will ignite the spark of technical analysis in young minds and will also prepare them to take up new investment career opportunities at an early stage of their lives,” he added.

“I have worked with TAPMI and Professor Madhu, who will be leading this new partnership, since 2013 in various capacities,” said Joel Pannikot, Head of the recently-christened India liaison office of the TAN Association. “Among Indian business schools, they are arguably the most committed to creating infrastructure to provide the finance industry with job-ready professionals. The possibilities our Academic Partnership presents are limitless.”

About TAN Association:

Founded in the late 1960s, the TAN Association has served the financial industry for nearly 50 years. What started as a small group of technical research analysts in NYC has matured into an industry beacon for professionals worldwide. Today, we strive to deliver value through diverse education and networking opportunities, member advocacy, career advancement, and the highest standards of professional ethics.

About TAPMI:

The student city of Manipal, Karnataka plays host to the T.A. Pai Management Institute, fondly known as TAPMI. With academic rigor and experiential learning at its core, TAPMI’s Post Graduate Diploma in Management Programs has been approved by All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE) since its founding.

Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA Featured On RIA Channel

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 31 Jul 2019 17:32:14 +0000

Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA, was featured on RIA Channel on Monday discussing the advantages of outsourcing the CIO role within a firm. He was interviewed by Julie Cooling, founder of RIA Channel. Sorenson is a co-founder of WealthShield LLC, provider of custom indices and analysis.

“Portfolios today tend to have an institutional bias,” Sorenson said, emphasizing the importance of portfolio customization and behavioral analysis.

He went on to explain the ease of constructing an institutional-quality asset management program with WeatlhShield’s tools.

Watch the full interview here: WealthShield’s Sorenson Talks Outsourced CIOs and Custom Indexes.

Andrews Adams, CMT, Featured On MarketWatch With Bearish Comments

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 24 May 2019 13:51:48 +0000

Andrew Adams, CMT, was featured in a MarketWatch article on Wednesday voicing a warning about slowing momentum in the S&P 500, as well as the resilience of a long-term trend line that dates back to 2009.

“The listless nature of U.S. equity benchmarks and a recent lower tilt for the broad-market benchmark could seriously jeopardize the decadelong rally,” said reporter Mark DeCambre, paraphrasing Adams’ primary concern. “Readings of momentum are already signaling a flagging pace of gains since the last time the S&P 500 threatened a decisive break below trend,” he added, as illustrated by the chart above.

“I really don’t want to see an acceleration to the downside start from these levels,” said Adams.

Read the full article here: Warning signs illustrate why it’s crucial for the stock market to hit new highs soon.

Mathew Verdouw, CMT, Featured On DailyFX Podcast

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 17 May 2019 16:31:19 +0000

Mathew Verdouw, CMT, CEO of the trading software company Optuma, was featured on the DailyFX podcast Trading Global Markets Decoded last week. Host Tyler Yell interviewed him about his experience with quantitative trading and his opinion on how to best implement those strategies within a larger technical analysis context.

“The term ‘quant’ is a little bit of a misnomer,” Verdouw said. “[There’s this] perception of people building mathematical models, and it sounds hard, but I think that as a quantitative technical analyst I just want to measure.”

“If I’m measuring my idea in a way that gets rid of all biases, and I’m being as robust and thorough as I can, I’d say that’s being quantitative,” he added.

Listen to the full podcast on DailyFX here: Quantitative Trading Strategies with Mathew Verdouw.

Christopher Diodato, CMT, CFA Awarded 2019 Charles H. Dow Award

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 20 Mar 2019 19:58:20 +0000

NEW YORK, NY (March 20, 2019) – Christopher Diodato, CMT, CFA of Cantilever Wealth Management, is the 2019 winner of the TAN Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award, the organization announced Wednesday. The TAN Association is the leading organization for Technical Analysis professionals and the governing body for the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation.

Mr. Diodato received the Dow Award for his research, entitled “Making The Most Of Panic – Exploring The Value Of Combining Price & Supply/Demand Indicators,” a paper that demonstrates creativity in the application of technical analysis. He will be honored during the TAN Association’s 2019 Annual Symposium on April 4, 2019.

“This award helps fuel my passion for the application of technical analysis in portfolio management, and encourages me to continue producing new research to help push our field ahead,” said Mr. Diodato on Wednesday. “I am honored to be selected as this year’s winner.”

The complete paper will be publicized on the TAN Association website in early April, ahead of the 2019 Annual Symposium.

Brian Joyce, CMT, Featured On NASDAQ Market News

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 07 Mar 2019 16:01:55 +0000

Brian Joyce, CMT, was featured on the Nasdaq Market News blog on Tuesday with new commentary on the S&P’s recent behavior, illustrated by the chart above.

“The 2,800 – 2,817 range became an important price zone in Q4 as it is the scene of the crime where the index peaked on the three biggest relief rallies in October, November, and December,” wrote Joyce. “It is natural to expect this range to be a battleground of activity now that price is rebounding from the bottom side as recent longs look to lock in gains and short term speculators identify clearly defined risk levels to go short.”

“The SPX is now testing this resistance zone for the seventh consecutive session. The more time it spends chipping away at overhead supply, the more likely it is to break through instead of succumbing to the pressure and rolling over,” he added.

Read the full article, including all of Joyce’s commentary, here: Stocks Mixed as Wall Street Monitors Trade Talks.

Frank Cappelleri, CMT, Featured In MarketWatch, CNBC

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 05 Mar 2019 17:18:27 +0000

Last Friday, Frank Cappelleri, CMT, was featured on CNBC discussing the S&P 500’s relationship with a potential support level of 2800, as illustrated by the chart above.

“As we saw last summer, once 2,800 was officially overtaken, it became support,” Cappelleri said. “And that support helped propel the market to new highs.”

He was also featured in a MarketWatch article in mid-February, noting that the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks has been outperforming three other main stock-market benchmarks since last December.

Read his CNBC commentary here: Stocks need to break through this next big market level to convince traders this comeback is real; find the MarketWatch article here: Why a stock-market rally has taken hold on Wall Street in February.

Buff Dormeier, CMT, Named A 2019 Best-In-State Wealth Advisor By Forbes

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 28 Feb 2019 22:13:16 +0000

February 28, 2019 — TAN Association member Buff Dormeier, CMT, was named to Forbes’ 2019 list of Best-In-State Wealth Advisors for the second year in a row last week.

“This is an incredible honor to be named again as a Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisor,” Dormeier said, in a statement. “Our team strives to set a higher standard of excellence in the lives we touch. I believe the honor speaks to the quality and integrity of our elite clientele whom we are blessed to build meaningful relationships.”

Previously, he had been named a Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisor for 2018.

Buff Dormeier is the 2007 recipient of the TAN Association’s Charles Dow Award, which recognizes research papers breaking new ground or which make innovative use of established techniques in the field of technical analysis. His work with market indicators and trading system design has been published and referenced in Barron’s, Stock’s & Commodities, and Active Trader magazines, and the IFTA and TAN Association Journals.

Read the full press release here: Buff Dormeier Named To The Ranking Of 2019 Best In State Wealth Advisors By Forbes.

John Jagerson, CMT, CFA Featured On Investopedia, Comments On Direction Of Oil

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 11 Feb 2019 18:36:54 +0000

John Jagerson, CMT, CFA, was featured on Investopedia last Tuesday with an article about the possible short-term direction of oil in light of a failed head-and-shoulders pattern on its chart.

“Failed patterns have a high likelihood of moving in the opposite direction of the original breakout. There’s no guarantee that this will happen for oil, but if the uptrending level that served as support for the left and right shoulders of the reversal pattern can’t hold at $51.50, traders should watch for oil to retest its late-December 2018 lows,” wrote Jagerson, substantiating this argument with the chart above.

“It appears that commodity traders are viewing the move by OPECto reach out and form a loose union with Russia and other former Soviet republics as a confirmation that oil demand is not keeping up with oil production,” he added.

Read the full article here: Oil Fades as Stocks Soar.

Chad Shoop, CMT, Featured On Investopedia With Berry Global Stock Outlook

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 01 Feb 2019 17:22:44 +0000

Chad Shoop, CMT, was featured on Investopedia on Thursday calling a potential “double-digit rally” for international packaging and container company Berry Global after identifying an ascending triangle pattern in its chart, as illustrated above.

“Ascending triangle patterns tend to be bullish breakouts, sending shares sharply higher once the red resistance level is broken. The company reports earnings tomorrow, but the stock is down to $48.40 per share today. As long as it holds above the green support level, the ascending triangle pattern remains intact, and a bullish breakout remains likely,” Shoop wrote.

“In sum, a seemingly boring packaging and container company, Berry Global, is expected to see rapid double-digit moves in the coming weeks. A breakout to the upside signals the potential for a nearly 30% rally, while a breakout lower would signal that there’s a quick 20% decline coming.”

Read the full article here: Berry’s Stock Set to Rally Double Digits

Tom Bruni Calls Near-Term Predictions “Challenging” In AllStarCharts Article

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 14 Jan 2019 14:50:05 +0000

TAN Association affiliate member Tom Bruni, technical analyst at AllStarCharts.com, published an article Thursday analyzing potential near-term market moves using relative strength charts.

“Sectors and stocks that held up well during the correction are likely to lead, and that’s exactly what we saw from Cloud Computing, Software, and other areas of Technology that are now leading higher,” as illustrated by the chart above, Bruni wrote.

“Based on the mixed bag we have today, it’s unclear how the major indexes will ultimately resolve themselves,” he added. “But by consistently identifying the strongest and weakest areas of the market, we can continue to take advantage of the trends that are in place now[.]”

Read the full article here: Stocks Have Rallied, Now What?

Alex Spiroglou Featured In Technical Analysis Of Stocks & Commodities December Issue

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 09 Jan 2019 17:59:59 +0000

TAN Association associate member Alex Spiroglou, who chairs our London Chapter, was featured in a full-length interview with Technical Analysis Of Stocks & Commodities Magazine’s Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan, which appeared in the December 2018 issue of the publication.

In the interview, Alex discusses his technical analysis background, including how he was introduced to the discipline; he describes his introduction as experiencing “love at first sight.”

He also touches on a variety of other topics, including the importance of having a mentor, as well as his proprietary trader development system, “SMART TDS,” and his thoughts on diversification.

Read the full interview here: Build Your Trading Skills: An Interview With Alex Spiroglou.

David Settle, CMT, Featured In See It Market Discussing Support Levels For S&P

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 08 Jan 2019 18:54:18 +0000

David Settle, CMT, wrote an article that was featured on See It Market on Monday discussing a potential support level for the S&P around 2600.

In the article, he describes the S&P 500 as “weakly bullish” and says the index might be gathering momentum toward a sustainable upturn.

“Usually, the intermediate line will make a run towards the chart’s midpoint from low levels where it experiences a hiccup,” Settle wrote. “The S&P 500 is testing 17-day EMA. Next stage will be for a test of the 30-day SMA where the next near-term high may be for producing the expected intermediate hiccup.”

The bounce is illustrated in the chart above.

Read the full article here: Weekend Stock Market Outlook: Is the Rally Targeting 2600?

Jim Bianco, CMT, Featured On Fox Business Discussing Fed Policy

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 04 Jan 2019 16:23:29 +0000

President of Bianco Reseach and former TAN Association Vice President Jim Bianco, CMT, was featured on Fox Business on Monday discussing his forecast for the economy in 2019, including key areas of risk and potential safe havens for investors.

Fears that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy have caused Goldman Sachs to revise its growth forecast for the year, Bianco said.

“I think [the market is] rebounding, because it’s now decided, the Fed gets it, there’s going to be no more rate hikes in 2019 … but if Chairman Powell starts hinting that there will be more rate hikes, I don’t think the market is going to take that well,” he added.

Listen to the full interview here: Goldman Sachs slashes its growth forecast for first half of 2019.

Tony Dwyer’s Market Commentary Featured On CNN

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 02 Jan 2019 19:13:44 +0000

TAN Association affiliate member Tony Dwyer was prominently featured in CNN’s Business section on Wednesday, as part of a roundup listing the biggest perceived risks to stocks in the coming year. Dwyer’s commentary on decreased earnings outlooks and a general global slowdown is highlighted in two of the three largest risk areas.

“If the Fed continues to ignore the weakening inflation data and maintains their current projected path, it could cause an even bigger disaster [than October],” Dwyer, pictured above in an earlier appearance on CNBC, is quoted as saying.

He also opines that if the Fed signals it will stop raising rates, the market could reach new highs.

Read the full article here: The 3 biggest risks to stocks in 2019.

Board Nominations Are Now Open

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 21 Dec 2018 18:45:11 +0000

The Leadership Development Committee of the Board of Directors at the TAN Association is accepting applications for Director-at-Large positions for the fiscal year commencing July 1, 2019. The Board is seeking to build a pipeline of future leaders by identifying members who can help move our association forward. Directors-at-Large serve a 3-year term.

In addition to the skills necessary to fulfill the obligations of the role and the desire to serve in a volunteer capacity to help further the mission of the TAN Association, applicants/nominees should exhibit the following characteristics:

PASSIONATE
Have a passion for technical analysis and furthering the mission of the TAN Association

POSITIVE
Encourage a positive and collaborative debate and discussion with a diverse group of volunteer leaders

PRESENT
Able to participate in regular conference calls, as well as attend the Annual Symposium and other events during the year

PREPARED
Eager to pursue a deep understanding of the organization, its structures, and strategic plans for the coming years

PROACTIVE

Be an active participant in discussions, bringing past experiences from inside and outside the CMT to help further the organization

Members, Honorary Members and Emeritus Members in good standing are invited to submit recommendations for consideration no later than February 6, 2019 via e-mail to admin@cmtassociation.org.

James Mitchell Featured On Barron’s, Observing Bank Stock Value

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 21 Dec 2018 17:15:18 +0000

TAN Association affiliate member James Mitchell was featured in Barron’s on Thursday theorizing about the current condition of bank stocks, which he noted have traditionally remained “surprisingly stable” in periods of economic drawdown.

“Mitchell argues that a near-term recession will be even easier on banks, and ‘in this context, the average decline from 52-week highs of 32% in large cap banks & brokerage stocks is in line with the average 31% peak-to-trough declines seen in the recessions in the early ’80s and in 2001,'” writes reporter Ben Walsh.

Mitchell added that, “with this stock correction matching prior recessionary moves, turning negative on the group now would be like ‘closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.’”

Read the full article here: Are Bank Stocks Predicting the Next Recession?

AP: US Investing Championship To Restart In 2019

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 20 Dec 2018 15:19:54 +0000

The Associated Press on Tuesday released a statement announcing that the United States Investment Championship, which previously ran from 1983 to 1993 and was dominated by some of the top names in technical analysis, would restart in 2019 under its original proprietor, Dr. Norman Zada. Robert Prechter, Jr. won the competition in 1984 with a then-record 444% return in a monitored options trading account.

Read the full statement here: United States Investing Championship to Restart in 2019.

The championship costs $350 to enter, and the competition runs over the course of an entire year. To compete, “each participant must specify a real account number for an account of $20,000 or more, on or before December 31, 2018. If they do well and wish to appear in the quarterly standings, they submit copies of their brokerage statements at the end of each quarter,” according to the AP.

There is also a competition exclusively for accounts of $1M or more, the Money Manager Verified Ratings, which costs $1,000 to enter.

For more information, contact Dr. Norman Zada at norman@financial-competitions.com, or 310-409-7193, or 310-476-0700.

Institutional Investor Article Features TAN Association And Several Analysts

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 19 Dec 2018 14:26:46 +0000

The Institutional Investor on Monday ran a feature-length article about the rising popularity of technical analysis within mainstream investor circles, featuring TAN Association CEO Alvin Kressler as well as several other technical analysts who hold a variety of positions in the finance industry.

“On the buy side more and more people are integrating technical analysis into their processes […] We are seeing more people gravitate to us,” Kressler is quoted as saying.

Prominent member Ralph Acampora also appears, touting the technical analysis course he teaches at the University of St. Thomas.

“Getting technical analysis more widely accepted into the school curriculum could, Acampora says, establish a beachhead — and move it into what he and other chartists see as its rightful place alongside the tenets of modern portfolio theory, such as the capital asset pricing model, portfolio optimization, and the efficient-market hypothesis,” said reporter Richard Teitelbaum.

Read the full article here: The Revenge of the Chart Watchers.

Kenneth Winans, CMT, Wins World Record For Awarded Finance Book Publications

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 18:02:24 +0000

Kenneth Winans, CMT, President and Founder of Winans Investments, has set a new world record for the Most Awards Won in Major Book Competitions for a Finance/Business Author in the English Language, according to the World Record Academy.

His four published works have, in total, won 33 different awards in international competitions.

“Unique in the financial services industry, Mr. Winans has documented ‘track records’ as a market strategist and a portfolio manager,” reported the World Record Academy. “Over a long career, he has conducted landmark investment research and designed creative investment strategies while serving as a portfolio manager, investment analyst, and financial writer.”

Read the full World Record Academy story here: Most Awards Won in Major Book Competitions for a Finance Author: Kenneth Winans.

David Keller, CMT, Featured On AllStarCharts’ All Star Interviews

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 14 Dec 2018 21:33:18 +0000

David Keller, CMT, former president of the TAN Association and the president and chief strategist of Sierra Alpha Research LLC, a boutique investment research firm, was featured on JC Parets’ All Star Interviews on Friday talking about why he’s approaching the U.S. stock market from a “more neutral” perspective.

“We discuss US Treasury Bonds, Rates, Gold, Crude Oil and other assets that are making new highs like Palladium,” said JC.

Listen to the full interview here: All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 12: David Keller, Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research.

Katie Stockton, CMT, Featured On CNBC With Positive Outlook On Tech

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 13 Dec 2018 15:23:45 +0000

Katie Stockton, CMT, was featured on CNBC’s Closing Bell Wednesday with a positive outlook on a few of the tech stocks that have displayed unusually extreme behavior recently.

She pointed to indicators that show the S&P is oversold in the intermediate term, and said she believed Apple also is oversold in the intermediate term.

“It doesn’t have a buy signal yet. It doesn’t have that improved momentum that we’re seeing in other areas of technology. But I think it’s only a matter of time,” Stockton predicted.

“You also have big extremes in breadth and sentiment and leadership that we really don’t often see,” she said of the S&P 500.

Read the full article here: Chart analyst Katie Stockton sees ‘very bullish’ signs for S&P, Apple and Amazon.

Mark Newton, CMT, Talks Potential S&P Support On See It Market

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 07 Dec 2018 18:30:03 +0000

Mark Newton, CMT, of Newton Advisors, penned a brief See It Market piece Thursday in which he discussed a potential temporary support level of 2600 for the still-plunging S&P 500 index.

“While an uptick in fear could hold prices near 2600-22 this go-around, the structure looks increasingly like one that will breakdown eventually given the deep retests,” Newton said, referring to the patterns in the futures chart above.

“The structure has definitely begun to get worse in the last two sessions … We’ll need to see a rally back up ABOVE 2764 to have any sort of confidence that lows are in, which at this point, is a long ways off.”

Read the full piece here: S&P 500 Trading Update: 2600 On Radar Again.

Avoid Shorting Nifty50, Says Milan Vaishnav, CMT

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 05 Dec 2018 18:17:59 +0000

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, was featured in India’s Economic Times on Wednesday with some timely insight amid a broader period of global consolidation.

“Pattern analysis shows Nifty had ended outside the upper Bollinger band before, [in the prior] couple of sessions. This signals resumption of a fresh uptrend or continuation of the current trend. At the same time, there was some possibility of the Nifty pulling back inside the band. This is what we are witnessing currently, and the index continues to be in a period of consolidation. Given the current chart structures, we expect this consolidation to continue,” Vaishnav wrote, as illustrated by the chart above.

“We will continue to see Nifty consolidate in a defined range. […] Shorts should be avoided as the undercurrent remains buoyant.”

Read the full article here: Nifty outlook: Protect profits, avoid shorts.

Bruce Kamich, CMT, Bearish On Deutsche Bank

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 30 Nov 2018 20:15:03 +0000

Bruce Kamich, CMT, was featured in TheStreet late Thursday, sharing his take on Deutsche Bank’s most recent struggles (including a police raid, pictured above) and its valuation outlook.

Kamich advised against buying the dip, saying he thought its stock might have further to slide.

“I know some traders like to buy weakness and buy when the news is terrible, but that is not my style,” he said. “[Deutsche] could make a large percentage bounce at anytime but again I like my odds with the Mega Millions better than buying a stock in a prolonged downtrend.”

“The stock fell … as the appearance of yet another scandal and the possibility of yet more penalties from regulators is stoking market fears on the stock that has already lost about half of its value in 2018,” said reporter Kevin Curran.

Read the full article here: Deutsche Bank Stock Slumps Following Police Raid.

Ari Wald, CMT, Featured On Trading Nation, Talks Emerging Markets

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 18:53:07 +0000

Ari Wald, CMT and head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, was featured on CNBC’s Trading Nation Monday with some insight on the future of investment in emerging markets versus domestic investments.

“We have seen the S&P underperform since the start of the fourth quarter,” Wald said, as illustrated by the chart above. But “what’s telling for us is that this weakness is still occurring within an uptrend as indicated by that rising 200-day moving average, that the longer-term trend is still pointing toward the U.S.”

“The recent underperformance in the U.S. is more the opportunity to stay overweight the U.S. and re-up on that call,” he added.

Watch the full segment and read the news story here: Emerging markets are outperforming, but one chart suggests the rally could be short-lived.

Rich Ross, CMT, Featured In Bloomberg, Talks AAPL Prospects

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 28 Nov 2018 16:14:57 +0000

Rich Ross, CMT, was featured in Bloomberg on Monday talking about the possible direction of Apple’s stock price.

“While Apple analysts see it transitioning to a business model based more on services than unit sales, there could be more pain ahead for the stock, which could dethrone it from the number-one spot in a more decisive fashion,” wrote reporter Ryan Vlastelica.

As illustrated in the chart above, Apple’s stock “has another 18 percent downside,” which could take the stock to $140, its 200-week moving average, adds Rich Ross. “It is not bullish when the biggest stock in the world is in ‘falling knife’ mode,” Rich is quoted as saying in a client memo.

Read the full article on Bloomberg: Who’s Most Valuable? Apple Is Still the Champ Over Microsoft.

George Davis, CMT, Featured On The Technical Analyst, Talks Sentiment

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 20 Nov 2018 17:05:22 +0000

George Davis, CMT, who is a Managing Director and Chief Technical Analyst of Fixed Income and Currency Strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, was featured in The Technical Analyst late last week discussing a possible key support level of the S&P 500 amid shifting sentiment.

Davis pointed out that the recent S&P selloff has taken it below the 55, 100 and 200-day moving averages and below the long-term ascending channel from late 2015 (see chart above). Moreover, selling intensity increased dramatically after the 200-day moving average was pierced (see lower pane above), confirming a major change in sentiment.

Davis also presented two other charts illustrating the possible magnitude of the ongoing market correction, and discussed the possibility of it mirroring the 2015-2016 consolidation period. A repeat of that consolidation would point to a period of consolidation between 2500-2900, Davis said.

Read the full article and view the other charts here: Limits to S&P correction?

Hussein Sayed Foresees “Catalyst” Following More Gold Consolidation

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 19 Nov 2018 20:09:24 +0000

TAN Association affiliate member Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at ForexTime, was featured on CNBC Monday discussing the continuing consolidation of gold prices.

“We will continue to see some consolidation between $1,200 and $1,250 for a couple of weeks until we see a kind of catalyst,” Sayed, pictured above, said. “This could be Brexit negotiations, [or] the G20 meeting between the U.S. and China.”

CNBC added commentary from fellow analysts backing up Sayed’s opinion, while pointing out that the dollar has recently posted its biggest weekly drop in two months, as the Fed raised concerns over a potential global economic slowdown.

“If we hear more dovish comments on the tightening cycle, this will drag the dollar lower and give another push to gold prices,” Sayed concluded.

Read the full article here: Gold holds tight range as uncertain US rate view saps dollar.

NVIDIA Poised To Gain Strength, Says Todd Gordon

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 16 Nov 2018 20:58:17 +0000

TAN Association affiliate member Todd Gordon, a technical analyst and founder of TradingAnalysis.com, was featured on CNBC late Thursday to talk about a possible buying opportunity for graphics chipmaker Nvidia, which recently experienced a 40% crash in price from its yearly peak to a low last month.

Gordon pointed out that, in general, the semiconductor industry has displayed significant relative strength.

“We’ve made a higher low, and we’re starting to see semis move back,” he said. “What I like about this and the overall space is we’re showing relative strength in the semis, which was a major source of NASDAQ weakness over the last few months.”

Read the whole article on CNBC: Nvidia plummets after earnings — here’s how to trade the chips now.

Bloomberg Quint Features Stephen Suttmeier, CMT, On S&P Outlook

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 14 Nov 2018 21:07:05 +0000

TAN Association member and charterholder Stephen Suttmeier, a technical analyst at Bank of America, was featured on BloombergQuint late Monday with a cautious short-term outlook.

“Late stage bull market behavior and a failure at resistance, along with the lack of full capitulation … on the October decline increase the risk of a retest or undercut of the lows near 2,600,” Suttmeier said. The chart above illustrates the risk of a potential retest near that support level.

“While the benchmark index ended last week with another rally of more than 2 percent, the ascent faltered around 2,815, a level that halted a similar recovery attempt in mid October and represented a 61.8 percent retracement of the entire decline from the September peak,” reporter Lu Wang added.

TAN Association member and charterholder Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research is also briefly featured in the piece.

Read the full report here: S&P 500 May Test October Lows as Bounce Fails Again, BofA Says

Mark Newton, CMT, Featured On CNBC: Tech Could Bring “Deeper Retracement”

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 13 Nov 2018 18:09:06 +0000

TAN Association members Mark Newton and Todd Sohn were featured on CNBC’s Market Insider late Monday, speaking about investor sentiment and the role tech stocks will play in the market near-term.

“I don’t think we could say with a lot of confidence, there needs to be this year end rally, and now everyone is looking for it. They’re scratching their heads. It doesn’t seem to be fear. It’s confusion, and when confusion turns to fear that’s when you see a trading low,” said Newton, chief technical analyst at Greywolf Execution Partners and founder of Newton Advisors LLC.

“Excluding today, the bounce from the 29th to Friday, this 8 percent move was not accompanied by resounding internals. That left us a little uncomfortable,” said Sohn, technical analyst at Strategas Research. “I think there’s a debate here, a possibility [the lows] are in play.”

“If Apple is still trending down, there is no evidence of bottoming. We should not be surprised. The stock, like other techs, is still trending lower,” said Newton, who pointed out that, despite the trend described in the chart above, longer-term trends are still positive.

Read the full article here: Apple’s breakdown could mean the stock market retests the October low, chart analysts fear.

Bill Stone, CMT, Featured In WSJ, Talks Up Emerging Markets

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 21:55:07 +0000

Bill Stone, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Avalon Advisors, LLC, was featured in the Wall Street Journal late Sunday with a practical perspective on investing in foreign stock markets, particularly in Asia.

“We are overweight Japan,” he told reporter Dan Weil. “[Japan] has high-quality companies holding lots of cash, and corporate governance has improved.”

While Japan’s economic growth is slow, export-focused Japanese companies can benefit from a stronger economic expansion elsewhere in the world, Stone said.

“The best long-term investment prospects lie in emerging markets, thanks to their strong economic growth,” added Weil, though “emerging markets, excluding their rally in 2017, have suffered in recent years amid weak commodity prices, slowing growth in China and tightening U.S. monetary policy,” as illustrated by the chart above.

Still, says Stone, “stocks are significantly cheaper in other parts of the world.”

Read the full article here: Now May Be a Good Time for Stock Investors to Look Abroad

“Terrible Trends” Persist Despite Bounces, Says Jeff deGraaf, CMT, In MarketWatch

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 01 Nov 2018 18:23:26 +0000

Jeff deGraaf, CMT, was featured in MarketWatch late Wednesday with a wary take on this week’s market performance in light of its previous drawdown.

“We’d classify the rebound as ‘uninspiring’ where TRIN was a useless .61 and breadth a mediocre 2.2:1,” deGraff is quoted as saying, as reporter Mark DeCambre explains the basics of Dick Arm’s TRIN indicator.

“Nearly all of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors are on track for their worst monthly declines since 2008, according to Dow Jones Data Group,” wrote DeCambre. The data is pictured in the table above.

“We’ve seen enough deterioration in our trend work to raise the bar on what’s needed to reach escape velocity and shift the burden back to the bears,” said deGraaf. “These are bounces in terrible trends, and are high probability failures in the near-term, but whether days or weeks is hard to say.”

Read the full article here: Why a 240-point rally for the Dow and stock-market rebound is ‘uninspiring.’

Katie Stockton, CMT, Featured On Morning Trade Live

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 20:35:08 +0000

Katie Stockton, CMT, Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, was featured on TD Ameritrade Network’s Morning Trade Live on Monday.

“Even though there were quite a few breakdowns on the individual stock level last week, if we do get a sharp upturn this week – which the market is set up for – those breakdowns would be left unconfirmed,” Stockton said.

“One weekly close below a support level is not a second one,” she added, stressing the importance of waiting for such a confirmation “especially in a market like this.”

Fairlead Strategies is an independent research provider of technical analysis to institutional investors.

Watch the full interview here: Will Strength Hold In The Market? Katie Stockton Weighs In.

Mark Arbeter, CMT, Assesses Next Moves In Face Of Warning Signs

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 29 Oct 2018 18:58:20 +0000

Mark Arbeter, CMT, publisher of the “On The Mark” technical analysis newsletter and President of Arbeter Investments LLC, was featured in See It Market on Friday with a technical update on last week’s market activity.

“Have we seen a clear washout from an internal/sentiment standpoint to see at least a good rally in the near term? Probably,” Mark posits. “If so, the dynamics of the next rally (how far it goes, the breadth makeup, the leadership) will go a long way in determining whether we reach 3,000+ on the index or if key lows down near 2,500 get breached first.”

“I have not seen enough damage here to declare that the bull market has ended, although there are some key warnings from some of my favorite charts and indicators,” he said.

Mark continued on to discuss a variety of indicators, including short, intermediate and longer-term trends on the S&P 500, as well as market breadth and sentiment.

“On the one-hour chart, the 500 may be tracing out a ‘fish hook’ bottom,” he said of the short-term chart, pictured above. “These patterns are seen quite frequently at intermediate-term bottoms. There is a nice bullish divergence on the hourly chart after cycling into oversold territory.”

Read the full feature here: S&P 500 Technical Update: Gauging The October Market Correction

CNN Taps JJ Kinahan, CMT, For Comment On Volatile Tech Stock Performance

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 26 Oct 2018 20:07:24 +0000

JJ Kinahan, CMT, Chief Market Strategist at TD Ameritrade, was tapped for his market commentary on Friday by CNN’s Matt Egan, as Egan discussed this week’s tech stock performance in light of recent market behavior.

In particular, Egan noted that Google and Amazon, part of the group of tech stocks colloquially known as FANG, had failed to deliver on broader investor expectations this past week.

“They’ve been the momentum stocks,” Kinahan is quoted as saying. “If they go down, they drag the market with them.”

On his blog Friday, Kinahan noted that while the market may feel particularly volatile right now, “it’s worth noting that such periods aren’t too uncommon,” according to the chart of historical volatility levels featured above.

Read the full CNN article here: Erratic markets stage a comeback

And find JJ’s entire blog post here: Pair of Earnings Disappointments Seem to Weigh on Wall Street

Charlie Bilello, CMT, Featured In MarketWatch: “Panic Is The Worst Response”

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 25 Oct 2018 16:57:21 +0000

Director of Research at Pension Partners LLC, Charlie Bilello, CMT, was featured in MarketWatch on Thursday morning with some rational reasoning about how to react to Wednesday’s drawdown.

“Is there ever a reason to sell? Certainly, but it should be unemotional, in response to a clearly defined strategy or a change in goals/risk tolerance/holding period,” Bilello told reporter Barbara Kollmeyer.

“Panic is the worst response in or out of a falling market,” Kollmeyer paraphrased.

“If you’re not handling what’s going on right now, then trim back positions,” Bilello added, but, using the chart above as evidence, he cautioned that there has never been a situation where the market failed to recover from an apparent drop, no matter the cause.

Analysts Ryan Detrick, CMT, Doug Kass and Mike Shedlock offered supporting views.

“Since 1950, there have been 7 other years that were positive YTD going into October and saw the S&P 500 turn negative YTD during October. The good news is the final two months were higher 6 times and up 4.1% on average,” Detrick is quoted as saying in a tweet.

Read the entire article here: A ‘lost decade’ for stocks may have just arrived, says this adviser.

Craig Johnson, CMT, Doesn’t See Drawdown Ending Soon

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 17:02:25 +0000

Chief market technician at Piper Jaffray, Craig Johnson, CMT, former President of the TAN Association and current Chapter Chair of the Minnesota Chapter was featured on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” Tuesday, urging caution about the nature of the market’s most recent drawdown.

“We had this kind of fake-out/breakout scenario. It’s ended up becoming a fake-out similar to what we had seen in 2000 and 2007 and now we’re coming back down to retest support at 2,700,” said Johnson. “Usually when we get to this kind of weak internal readings we end up seeing some sort of flush-out. I think that flush-out is still ahead. I think it’s going to be another 5 to 10 percent lower from here and it’s probably going to take about 14 to 16 weeks to work out itself out.”

“Before Tuesday’s session, the S&P 500 had not traded below 2,700 since briefly touching and bouncing off that support level in late June,” specified CNBC reporter Keris Lahiff.

Johnson went on to say that he foresees a long-term uptrend support line around 2,500, which is where he would call an investable bottom.

Read the full report and watch the Trading Nation segment here: Stocks could fall another 10 percent before finding a bottom, Piper Jaffray technician says

JC Parets, CMT, Sees “Unlimited Downside Risk In The Market Right Now”

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 23 Oct 2018 19:12:50 +0000

JC Parets, CMT, of AllStarCharts, was featured in MarketWatch Tuesday, echoing caution about divergences among several key market indicators.

“There is unlimited downside risk in the market right now and I don’t think it’s being respected,” Parets said. “It’s not until afterwards that they ask, ‘what happened?’”

“He pointed to several divergences that should make clear to investors just how precarious the market situation is at these current levels. The first one is what we’re seeing in this chart of the S&P vs. the rest of the world,” said reporter Shawn Langolis. (View the chart above.)

Parets also noted the divergence between the S&P Industrial Average and the Transportation Average.

“This idea here is that when either industrial or transportation stocks make new highs, it’s important for the other to follow. When that confirmation doesn’t come, there’s cause for concern,” said Langolis.

“We saw these divergences lead to collapses in 2000, 2007 and more recently a severe selloff in 2015,” Parets wrote on his blog. “You can see that with new highs in the Dow this month, transports put in a lower high, typical behavior at market tops.”

See the transportation chart divergence and read the full report on MarketWatch here: The stock market faces ‘unlimited downside risk,’ warns veteran trader

Todd Sohn, CMT, Saw “Warning Signs” In Last Week’s Market Behavior

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 22 Oct 2018 17:12:08 +0000

Todd Sohn, CMT, a technical analyst and Director at Strategas Research Partners in New York, was featured in USAToday late last week urging caution in regards to the S&P 500’s recent weak behavior.

The “trend is turning to the downside,” and risk appetite for stocks is decreasing, Sohn told reporter Adam Shell.

Specifically, Sohn noted that transportation stocks late last week were down more than 10% below their September high, as illustrated by the Investopedia chart above.

“When shares of railroads, package delivery companies and container ships fall, it may be an early sign of economic weakness,” Sohn explained to Shell. “[The] character of the market is changing.”

Ari Wald, who recently appeared in The Technical Analyst with an opposing view, disagrees with Sohn in the report. The market is already trading at the “lower end” of a trading range Wald anticipates moving forward, he told Shell.

Read the full report here: Stock market warning flags: potential trouble spots to watch

Bitcoin Poised For Breakout, Says Rob Sluymer

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:39:58 +0000

Affiliate TAN Association member Rob Sluymer, a technical strategist at Fundstrat, was featured in MarketWatch late Thursday with an optimistic perspective on cryptocurrency trends.

“The coming 1-2 weeks could prove to be a near-term pivotal point for many cryptocurrencies,” Sluymer wrote in a recent research note, according to the report. “The majority of cryptocurrencies have remained in narrow consolidations for weeks BUT many are testing important technical trading levels that, if breached, [are] likely to trigger a dramatic response by traders.”

“Sluymer noted that the large-cap, midcap and small-cap indexes that the firm tracks are all pushing resistance, and a move above the index highs in September could be the catalyst for a run higher,” said Aaron Hankin, MarketWatch reporter.

The chart above describes this resistance, another indicator that the cryptocurrency may be poised for near-term gains.

Read the full story, including perspectives on altcoin, here: ‘It’s only a matter of time’ until bitcoin breaks out, analyst says

Ari Wald, CMT, Bullish On Oversold US Stocks: The Technical Analyst

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:23:35 +0000

Executive Director and head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer Ari Wald, CMT, was featured in The Technical Analyst on Wednesday with a contrarian outlook stemming from his take on the relatively high amount of oversold US stocks.

“Wald notes that the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks below 30 on the 14-day RSI has surged to a multi-year high (38%). He has found that S&P 500 returns since 1995 following such extreme oversold readings are followed by an average 4.3% gain over the next month versus 0.7% for the all-period average,” reported The Technical Analyst. The chart above describes this pattern.

“The percentage of US stocks in oversold territory is at a multi-year high and, together with a jump in the VIX, could be viewed as a bullish signal.”

Read the full article here: US stocks at oversold extreme.

Rich Ross, CMT, Says Market Should Expect V-Shaped Bounce

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 19:57:18 +0000

Head of Technical Analysis at Evercore ISI, Rich Ross, CMT was featured in Bloomberg late last week with an optimistic prediction: chart patterns “now offer a compelling tactical setup for a textbook V-shaped reversal higher.”

“The 7 percent correction was about 5 percent bigger than I thought it would be and I did not get out ahead of the recent decline, but I am getting out ahead of the tactical reversal with conviction,” Ross said, according to reporter Richard Richtmeyer. The left side of the “v” can be seen in the chart above.

“[Last] Thursday’s plunge pushed the S&P 500 Index’s 14-day relative strength index to 18, well below the level of 30 that’s viewed as an indication the market is oversold. U.S. stocks have only been this oversold six times since 1990, and the recent levels were more extreme than during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis,” wrote Richtmeyer.

Read the full article here: Technicals Signal V-Shaped S&P 500 Bounce, Evercore’s Rich Ross Says

Too Early To Call A Market Low, Says Stephen Suttmeier, CMT

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 16 Oct 2018 19:18:06 +0000

A former TAN Association New York Chapter co-chair was featured on MarketWatch early this week with a distinctly cautious outlook for the short term.

“Stephen Suttmeier, a technical research analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said there are plenty of oversold stocks and bearish sentiment is on the rise but the market has not quite deteriorated to a point where the negative trend turns into a contrarian indicator to buy,” wrote Sue Chang, Markets Reporter.

“More time and downside tests may be needed for a firm market low,” said Suttmeier, in a note he reportedly sent to clients. “This deterioration is seen across all the major U.S. equity averages and suggests a weakening or later stage bull trend from early 2016.”

“For now, the S&P 500 is trading above its 12-month moving average while its monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) — a momentum indicator that illustrates the relationship between two moving averages of prices, remains a buy signal. But if the S&P 500 12-month moving average falls below 2,747 and the monthly MACD switches to a sell signal, the risk for a bear market will rise,” reported Chang.

Suttmeier was not entirely bearish, however, pointing out that November to April is usually a good time for stocks, as illustrated in the chart above.

Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist and Head of the U.S. Macro Group at Cannacord Genuity, is also quoted in Chang’s piece, expressing similar sentiment.

Read the full report here: This stock-market pullback probably has further to go, say analysts.

Katie Stockton, CMT, Featured On CNBC: Predicts “Nice Recovery”

Marianna Tessello — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 17:42:52 +0000

Technical analyst Katie Stockton has been featured on CNBC, predicting a swift recovery for US markets after last week’s minicrash.

“You really want to be there for that first relief rally following this kind of price action, because that relief rally tends to be the most explosive. If you miss that, you tend to miss a lot of upside,” Stockton said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” show Friday morning.

“I know it can be a bit harrowing to buy into weakness like this … but once you have a little uptick in momentum, today should help,” she said.

“Stockton said the market internals are flashing their loudest collective buy signal since the Feb. 9 intraday low, which marked the bottom after stocks nosedived from then-record highs on Jan. 26,” said reporter Matthew Belvedere.

Stockton is founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research provider of technical analysis to institutional investors. Watch the full interview and read more of her predictions here: Chart analyst Katie Stockton sees loudest buy signal in the stock market since the crushing February low.

German Index Looks Like It’s Topping Out, Says Frank Cappelleri, CMT

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 12 Oct 2018 19:48:33 +0000

Frank Cappelleri, CMT, CFA, who currently serves as Chief Market Technician at Instinet, said Thursday that the DAX “is close to confirming a huge topping formation,” according to a report from The Technical Analyst.

“Cappelleri says that if the DAX breaks below the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern on a closing weekly basis, it would complete a large top (see Chart 1). Not only would this be bearish for German equities, but it could also be a bad omen for US equities, with the S&P 500 also currently testing key support from its 200-day moving average and long-term trendline,” said the report.

Read the full report on The Technical Analyst and view all Cappelleri’s charts here: All Eyes On DAX

Market Plunge Could Clear Way For Gold Rally, Says Jim Wyckoff, CMT

Marianna Tessello — Thu, 11 Oct 2018 19:54:29 +0000

Jim Wyckoff, CMT, was quoted in Kitco News on Wednesday as part of a chorus of analysts forecasting a rally for gold in the coming weeks.

“Equity markets are breaking down and that could be the catalyst needed to light a fire under the gold market, according to some analysts,” writes Niels Christensen. “In the current market environment, many analysts are keeping an eye on the $1,200 an ounce level since it represents the first hurdle gold needs to clear.”

“There are technical and fundamental signs the U.S. stock indexes have put in at least near-term market tops, if not major market tops,” Jim Wyckoff said, according to Christensen.

Christensen continues, “Jim … said that there is a very good chance gold regains the $1,200 level as he thinks this is just the start of a correction in equities.”

Read the full story in Kitco News here: 3% Drop In U.S. Equity Market Could Spark Gold Rally – Analysts

TAN Association Mourns Loss Of Former TAN Association President Paul Desmond

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 10 Oct 2018 13:37:29 +0000

NEW YORK, NY (October 10, 2018) — The TAN Association recently received the sad news that former TAN Association president and award-winning contributor Paul Desmond passed away. Paul’s 54-year career in technical analysis was unmatched, and he will be dearly missed by CMT charterholders and staff.

Paul served as president of the TAN Association from 1997 to 1999, but the knowledge and expertise he lent to the organization throughout its critical stages of development went far beyond his presidential role. He mentored budding technical analysts throughout his career, leaving a lasting impression on many who later rose to prominence within their areas of specialization.

In 2002, Paul won the prestigious Charles H. Dow Award for his research on pinpointing bear market bottoms. As a pioneer within the discipline of technical research, Paul’s work directly shaped the modern understanding of the very subject matter that defines the TAN Association.

“His market expertise served to illuminate a path to success for countless financial professionals,” said TAN Association Executive Director Alvin Kressler. “Paul remains a celebrated figure within the discipline of technical analysis. We’re honored to have worked with him for so long.”

Paul served as the President of Lowry Research Corporation, the oldest continuously published technical advisory firm in the nation, until his passing on October 1, 2018. His full obituary, as well as memories from his family and friends in the finance industry, can be found at his Dignity Memorial page. A more complete career history, as well as links to some of his work, can be found on his TAN Association page.

Louise Yamada, CMT, Featured On TheStreet’s Alpha Rising Series

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 09 Oct 2018 17:01:47 +0000

Technical Analysis legend Louise Yamada was featured on TheStreet’s Alpha Rising Series late last month when she was interviewed by financial journalist Tracy Byrnes. “I … met one of my idols,” wrote Byrnes, who said that Yamada’s work had inspired her for decades. “So finally meeting her, all these years later, was a gift. And not just because I got to listen – in person — to her astute market predictions. But because I realized that she too was a young single mother when she embarked on her career. (I was a single mom with three little ones when I started my journalistic journey.)” “That just makes me appreciate her momentous climb even more.” The Alpha Rising interviews on TheStreet.com are a series of talks featuring women on Wall Street sharing their stories. Watch Louise Yamada’s full interview here: Louise Yamada On the Current Market Environment and Her Climb to the…

Continue reading →

JC Parets Interviews Kim Sokoloff, CMT; Describes “Why Germany Matters”

Marianna Tessello — Wed, 03 Oct 2018 19:26:50 +0000

JC Parets of All Star Charts sat down with Kim Sokoloff last week to talk about her daily trading routine and thought process throughout the trading decisions she makes.

“We all have different time horizons, some longer-term and some shorter-term. Kim is concerned with what stocks are doing over a a few days. For her, ‘long-term’ is only a couple of weeks,” says Parets, describing Sokoloff’s frame of reference. “We’ve had analysts, money managers and traders on the podcast, but in this conversation we really dive deep into what it’s like trading every day from an apartment in lower Manhattan.”

Listen to the full podcast on All Star Charts: All Star Interviews.

John Kosar, CMT, Forecasts “Big, Fast Rise In Interest Rates”

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 02 Oct 2018 17:56:02 +0000

John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research, published a column in Forbes on Monday forecasting the effect of increasing inflationary pressure on the Fed’s ongoing interest rate hikes.

“U.S. interest rates have actually been been rising for a while, now, but at a glacier-slow pace that many people would have not noticed unless they were in the business of tracking them like we are. Our research strongly indicates long term US interest rates are at a secular decision point, one that is likely to eventually be resolved by significantly – if not surprisingly — higher borrowing costs over the next one to several quarters,” writes John.

“Although rising interest rates may indeed have a more gradual effect on the broader U.S. economy, they will probably have a more immediate effect on consumers financing debt at a floating rate via credit cards, mortgage and home equity loans, and student loans. Consumer spending currently comprises 68.0 percent of the U.S. economy, and U.S. household debt has risen over the past 18 months — especially in floating credit card debt which is up 2.6 percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Center for Macroeconomic Data. These factors support our expectations for a sharp and significant rise in U.S interest rates, particularly in long term rates. Should this occur, we would expect it to have a meaningful adverse effect on the US economy in 2019, as well as on U.S. equity prices which are strongly influenced by economic trends.”

Read the full column on Forbes here.

John Kosar, CMT, Warns Of ‘Jenga Top’ For ‘Top-Heavy’ Stock Market

Marianna Tessello — Tue, 25 Sep 2018 18:41:49 +0000

John Kosar, CMT, of Asbury Research, published a new report Monday warning that the S&P 500 may be set up for a steep decline if it falls below a key point.

“The S&P 500 sits just 1% above a level that, if breached, could trigger a broad selloff,” writes Ryan Vlastelica on MarketWatch.

“Kosar’s analysis is based on recent trends in flows into exchange-traded funds. He noted massive inflows into funds tracking the S&P 500. Specifically, $11.8 billion has gone into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, -0.04% over the past week, according to FactSet data. That influx expanded the ETF’s assets by about 5%; currently, there are nearly $283 billion in assets held in the fund, the first and largest ETF on the market.

“Among similar products, $2.5 billion has gone into the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO, -0.05% over the past week while an additional $823 million has flowed into the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV, -0.04% over the same period, according to FactSet data. More broadly, $17.7 billion has flowed into the category of large-capitalization U.S. stocks over the past week, by far the most of any ETF segment. To compare, roughly $3.5 billion flowed into tech stocks, the category with the second-highest inflows,” Vlastelica writes.

“This represents a new surge of bullish conviction that is immediately positive for the broad market. However, the danger of that much asset expansion, that fast, is that it makes the market top-heavy—like a Jenga game with a lot of newly-added weight at the top,” Kosar said in the report.

Kosar referred specifically to the SPY in his analysis, saying that a decline below 2,020 “puts more than half of those newly-added assets into the red, and a decline below 2,886 puts all this new money into the red—which could trigger a broad market correction.”

Kosar founded Asbury Research in 2005, where he uses an adaptive blend of technical and quantitative metrics to create more intuitive forecasts than a traditional approach.

JC Parets Interviews Ryan Detrick Of LPL Financial

Marianna Tessello — Fri, 21 Sep 2018 19:57:52 +0000

In this episode of Technical Analysis Radio, JC Parets of All-Star Trading interviews Ryan Detrick, who talks about the technical analysis work he does for LPL Financial.

“Ryan does an excellent job of using basic mathematics to debunk popular myths told to investors about the market,” JC says in his synopsis on AllStarCharts.com. “We discuss the impact of a rising rate environment on U.S. stocks, the Yield Curve, Stock Market Seasonality and some of the things he is currently watching.”

Listen below:

Where Is Technology Taking Traders? Podcast by Dr. Tom Starke

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 17 Sep 2018 18:15:33 +0000

A common dream sold to traders, especially when they’re starting out, is the dream of sitting back on the beach sipping cocktails while our trading systems go to work and make us money.

While certain aspects of that dream are possible, for example automated trading, traders still need to do a lot of work to get to that point.

We’ve got to research the markets, find trading edges, do testing and robustness checks, monitor strategies and systems, tweak and adjust where required…

It’s really not as simple as the dream sounds.

But with recent advances in technology, including AI, machine learning and quantum computing, are we close to having fully autonomous trading systems?

That is, can systems really learn trading rules themselves, find profitable edges and trade them, while we do sit back on the beach, boat or couch sipping cocktails and counting our money?

In this podcast episode we’re going to explore how recent advances in technology are impacting the trading space now and where it could be taking us in the future.

And to do that we have special guest Dr Tom Starke from AAAQuants.

Tom specialises in AI and machine learning solutions and he has some interesting insights to share with us, so let’s get started now and jump over now to my chat with Dr Tom Starke.

The Benefits of a Trend-Following Investment Approach

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 13 Sep 2018 16:08:02 +0000

In the search for the latest, greatest trading system or strategy, don’t neglect the one system that has been proven to work over the long run.

What if there was one investment approach that guaranteed you would always be invested during sustained upward moves of your selected investment or asset class and would miss the majority of a major downtrend?

Read the Full Article Here.

Technical Analysis Is A Wise Move For Any Cryptocurrency Related Investments

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 16:07:54 +0000

Cryptocurrency is the latest rage, and quite a few inexperienced people have gotten in over their heads. Although, that’s nothing new considering 3 in 10 Americans involved in investment decisions say they never research investment strategies, despite making high-risk investments. Forty-eight percent of American adults, mostly Millennials, believe volatile investments are an easy opportunity to make a profit. This makes sense, given that many Millennials have only experienced a bull market and have yet to experience the inevitable downturn.

Read the full article here.

The Equity Interest Rate Barometer – All Star Charts

Chelsey Clevenger — Sun, 02 Sep 2018 20:20:43 +0000

Read the Full Article Here.

Interest rates are on the move, with the Ten-Year Treasury Yield breaking 3% once again after working off its failed breakout attempt from May. One relationship that’s highly correlated with the Ten-Year Yield is Regional Banks vs

REITS

. We’ve written about this relationship in 2016 and 2017, but it’s at an important inflection point so today’s chart is going to revisit it.

Before we get into the chart it’s worth explaining why this positive correlation exists. When market participants think interest rates are going higher, their way of expressing that through the equity market is to allocate capital to sectors that will benefit from that rise in rates like Regional Banks. When they think interest rates are going to fall, they’re more inclined to allocate capital to high dividend paying equities like REITS to find the yield they’re not getting in the bond market. By measuring the relative performance of these two sectors, we can get a feel for how equity market participants are thinking about future trends in the bond market.

So here is the ratio chart of the Regional Banks vs

REITS

. In September of last

year

we saw this ratio break down temporarily while momentum hit oversold conditions, but it quickly recovered support and put in a bottom with interest rates, both eventually making new highs.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Today we’re seeing similar action with the ratio breaking down below support at 0.777 and momentum hitting oversold conditions. With interest rates breaking to multi-month highs, the confirmation we’d want to see from an

intermarket

perspective is this ratio quickly reversing and going on to

makenew

highs like it did last September.

I know this is “chart of the week” and not “charts of the week”, but here’s a bonus daily chart of the Ten-Year Treasury Yield for some additional context. After consolidating for most of the year, yields are attempting another breakout above that 3% level. Is it an important psychological level? Maybe, maybe not. We care about it because it’s the 2013 highs and the 161.8% extension of the December 2016 – September 2017 decline. If we’re above that level, 3.6% is our next upside objective.

The Bottom Line: This relationship between Regional Banks and

REITS

is one piece of a complicated interest rate picture, but it’s a very important one that we want to keep on our radar. If you’re in the camp that interest rates are headed higher, you want to see this divergence resolve itself with the ratio quickly recovering support and pushing to new highs.

If you enjoyed this post and want updates on how these charts develop, consider joining our community by starting a 30-day risk-free trial or signing up for our “Free Chart of the Week”.

Jerry Parker On Finding Your True Calling In Life And The Markets

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 30 Aug 2018 16:04:56 +0000

Jerry Parker began his career as an unfulfilled accountant looking for something more inspiring to do with his life. After getting rejected for several traditional jobs on Wall Street he responded to an ad looking for a handful of people eager to learn how to trade. It would soon turn out those early rejections were an incredible blessing in disguise because if he had been accepted to any one of them he would have likely missed out on the opportunity to learn from one of the true legends of finance.

Listen to the full podcast Here.

BNN Bloomberg Interview: This Bull Market Is Just Starting! – JC Parets

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 29 Aug 2018 16:03:02 +0000

This week I had the chance to visit Toronto for the first time. I spent a couple of days meeting with investors, doing a TV spot and taking in some of the things Canada has to offer.

I was invited to speak at the Toronto CFA Society to talk about my Technical Analysis. It was an event put on by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts and the TAN Association. The crowd was great, interested in charts and eager to learn. Everyone was so nice.

While in Toronto, I caught a Blue Jays game (they beat the Orioles 6-0) and ate too much sushi. All in all, mission accomplished!

Before the event on Thursday I went by the BNN Bloomberg studios for a TV interview with Catherine Murray. It was a lot of fun.

Here’s the video.

Mark Dow of Behavioral Macro – All Star Charts

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 02 Aug 2018 20:19:04 +0000

Listen to the Podcast Here.

This conversation with Mark Dow kicks off Season 2 of the bAll Star Charts Interviews sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily. Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s and later was a sovereign analyst at a Mutual Fund before ultimately running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. Today, Mark runs a Family Office from southern California and recently launched a Private Twitter Account that you can subscribe to called Behavioral Macro. In this Episode, we talk about the benefits of Technical Analysis throughout both process and execution, where we are in the US Stock Market cycle, rates, precious metals and emerging markets. Him and I both speak really fast so we covered a lot in a short period of time!

Why Gold is Plunging Despite Market Volatility – CNN Money

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 02 Aug 2018 17:49:36 +0000

Read the Full Article Here

Gold is supposed to be a haven, a place for investors to turn during tumultuous times.

But in the middle of a trade war, gold has fallen into a correction, down more than 10% from its high for the year.

Why has the price fallen lately? Simply put, it’s the strong US dollar.

Expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have helped lift the value of the currency.

A stronger dollar often is a bad thing for gold because it makes the metal more expensive for international investors.

“The yellow metal has clearly struggled to register any meaningful recovery in recent weeks, despite global trade tensions creating uncertainty,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at brokerage firm FXTM, in a report to clients.

The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates at its policy meeting this week. But investors will be eying the statement from the central bank closely, especially after President Donald Trump criticized the Fed’s rate-hiking policies.

Naeem Aslam,

chief

market analyst with Think Markets UK, said in a report that if the Fed continues to show confidence in the economy, the market would take that as a sign that two more rate increases are likely this year.

That’s more bad news for gold, and average investors, many of whom have bet on gold through popular exchange-traded funds, could get hurt.

The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which both mirror the price of gold, are down more than 6% this year and near their 52-week lows.

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which owns big miners like Newmont (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX), has tumbled nearly 10% this year.

John Kosar, chief market strategist with Asbury Research, doesn’t see an end in sight for the decline in gold prices.

He wrote in a recent report that gold prices could keep falling for the rest of the year.

He noted that investors should resist the urge to buy gold “just in case” of more “geopolitical strife,” which he conceded “is about as acute as it has been in a long time.”

Kosar warns that the drops in the gold ETFs over the past few weeks are a warning sign that investors are growing increasingly wary, unconvinced that the price will rebound any time soon.

Gold is usually considered a classic “fear” trade — something investors flock to when they are running for the hills. But despite all the market volatility — particularly plunging tech stocks — investors still seem fairly confident in the market.

CNNMoney’s own Fear & Greed Index, which looks at seven measures of market sentiment, is showing signs of Greed.

That doesn’t bode well for gold.

What The Monthly Charts Are Showing – JC Parets

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 01 Aug 2018 14:32:04 +0000

See Full Article with Charts Here

I could not be more thrilled that it’s the end of the month for one reason alone: Monthly Candlestick Charts. They get me every time!

It’s easy to get lost in the every day noise surrounding the market. The chart review I do heading into the first of every month is one of the most important parts of my process. It brings me home. There’s no better way I know to maintain composure and recognize trends than this monthly music and chart session!

Since June of 2017 when the S&P500 broke out above 2400, we’ve had a target of 3000. After close to a 4% rally in the S&P500 Index this month, we went out just 6 points from a new all-time high monthly close. This is not any evidence we think suggests anything has changed. To the contrary, higher prices are things we expect to see in an uptrend.

How Overvalued Are US Equities? – Webinar by Pension Partners

Chelsey Clevenger — Tue, 31 Jul 2018 17:49:51 +0000

By almost any metric imaginable, U.S. equities are “overvalued.”

But by how much is a source of constant debate.

Join Ed Dempsey and Charlie Bilello as they discuss this topic and more during our live webinar today (Tuesday, July 31st) at 4:15pm ET.

This webinar will be eligible for 1 hour CFP® CE Credit – you must include your CFP® ID when registering.

Topics covered will include:

The 3 Most Important Words in Investing.
How Overvalued are US Equities?
Current Market Analysis and Insights.

Leveraging Human Behaviour to find quantifiable edges – Larry Connors

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 16 Jul 2018 14:06:50 +0000

As Warren Buffet once said: “the stock market is a manic depressive.“

The market can be full of euphoria and greed one moment, and switch to fear and panic the next.

This can often be a time of danger and high-risk for some traders, but for other traders it’s a time of immense opportunity.

How?

In this podcast episode we’re joined by special guest Larry Connors.

Larry has over 30 years in the financial markets industry and has been featured on the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, & many other media outlets.

He’s been providing high-quality, data-driven trading research for over 15 years, and I’m sure many BST listeners have a stack of his books on their bookshelf.

I certainly do.

In my chat with Larry you’ll discover:

· How human emotions drive the market, and why it’s so important to look beyond price charts and indicators to understand what’s moving the market,

· How we can leverage extremes in specific human emotions to create quantifiable and profitable edges,

· How Larry came up with the idea of publishing his book ‘Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed’ and what traders can learn from it,

· 3 simple indicators to quickly judge the mood of the market,

· How Warren Buffets investment approach to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ can also apply to short-term trading,

Click here to listen to my chat with Larry – you’ve got nothing to fear!

Looking at Markets from Different Angles – Rikard Nilsson

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 27 Jun 2018 15:14:16 +0000

In this podcast episode we’re going to be talking about strategy design and different ways to look at the markets, and joining us as our special guests is Rikard Nilsson from Autostock.

Rikard trades all different styles and markets, and has even built his own trading platform with some interesting features he’s going to share with us.

Plus he’s going to share some interesting ideas on how he looks at the markets, some of which you may not have heard of before, including:

The ‘Predictive Average’ indicator – how it can be used to indicate potential market behaviors over the following days/weeks and months,
Validating strategies across different instruments,
Excluding certain parts of the day based on data,
Adaptive ‘Backtrack Technology’ and how to filter trading signals and position sizing dynamically based on past market behaviors.

Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA named 40 Under 40 by InvestmentNews

Emily E.A. Meyer — Mon, 18 Jun 2018 15:50:19 +0000

The TAN Association congratulates Clint Sorenson, CMT, CFA on being named 40 Under 40 by InvestmentNews weekly. The 40 Under 40 project highlights the remarkable accomplishments of young professionals in financial planning. Clint is Co-Founder of WealthShield LLC and has long been dedicated to innovating and accelerating the investment landscape. His unique system leverages proprietary quantitative strategies by fusing together behavioral finance, fundamental and technical analysis.

BNNBloomberg: Tech To Continue On A Tear

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 13 Jun 2018 15:35:18 +0000

JC Parets went by the Bloomberg West studios to do a quick hit with Catherine Murray. They discussed the S&P500, Technology, Financials, the underperformance of Consumer Staples, sector rotation, and Crude Oil during this segment.

Podcast – Grant Williams On The Value Of Surrounding Yourself With Brilliant People And Just Listening

Chelsey Clevenger — Tue, 12 Jun 2018 06:00:36 +0000

Grant Williams cut his teeth in the world of finance during one of the greatest speculative manias in history. As a prop trader at one of the largest firms in Tokyo, he had a front row seat to the epic Japanese twin bubbles in equities and real estate in the late-1980’s which endowed him with a healthy skepticism towards herd behavior in the financial markets. Eventually, he would go on to a serve in similar roles in nearly all of the world’s largest financial centers but not before he learned what he believes to be one of the most important lessons in the investing game: simply surround yourself with brilliant people and just listen. Today, he does this full time for RealVision where his long-form interviews with some of the greatest minds in the industry are produced and aired. He also shares much of what he learns through this process in his nearly decade-old publication “Things That Make You Go Hmmm….” In this conversation, we discuss some of the parallels between the bubbles of the past and the bubbles in today’s markets, his evolution as a trader and how it was shaped by his careful listening to so many brilliant people over the years and much more.

Listen to our conversation here.

Trading in Probabilities – Better System Trader Interview with Scott Hodson

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 11 Jun 2018 16:02:53 +0000

A huge part of algorithmic trading is about stacking the odds in our favour.

Finding statistical edges, and identifying times when probabilities indicate that market conditions are either favourable for a trade or perhaps unfavourable for a trade.

And although probabilities aren’t certainties, they can still be an important guides for traders, so joining us as special guest for this episode is Scott Hodson from Probable Trades.

Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Scott are:

How to apply probabilities to trading strategies and why looking at cross-sectional probabilities across multiple dimensions of data can potentially enhance trading results,
How a Probability Almanac can help track the performance of a trading strategy over certain time periods,
Why it can sometimes pay to have a fundamental knowledge of the stocks you’re buying instead of just blindly following trading signals,
How analysing risk to reward of past trades can help to determine at what point taking more risk is not beneficial,
Why you need to care for your ‘emotional capital, just as much as your ‘trading capital’,
A specific type of stop that can reduce the length and size of drawdowns,
Shorting strategies as a hedge to smooth out the equity curve and reduce drawdowns,
And much more.

“Trade To Make Money, Not To Be Right!” – The Futures Radio Show

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 11 Jun 2018 14:00:34 +0000

In this episode, Anthony Crudele, host of the Futures Radio Show, asks JC Parets about his process, how he first got into the market, how he approaches the market place today and in what ways we help our clients who are financial advisors, hedge funds, family offices, traders and individual investors.

“There’s an ‘interesting phenomenon’ happening with crude, and it could be sending a signal to bonds” – Charlie Bilello’s Full Interview

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 23 Apr 2018 17:04:22 +0000

“We have this interesting phenomenon where crude oil is highly correlated to the direction of inflation expectations,” Bilello told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday.

Click HERE for more on Charlie’s interview.

The Federal Reserve is sure to hike interest rates again this year, but the key question is how many times. One market watcher says investors could look in an unusual place for a clue.

Crude oil prices are a leading indicator in evaluating whether inflation is getting too hot and the Fed is ready to play catch-up, according to Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners.

“We have this interesting phenomenon where crude oil is highly correlated to the direction of inflation expectations,” Bilello told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday.

Crude can be seen as a predictive measure for overall inflation as its moves impact energy prices in real time. Crude oil prices have moved in lockstep with inflation expectations, as measured by the iShares TIPS bond ETF relative to the iShares 7-10 year Treasury bond fund, Bilello said.

From 2014 to 2016, for example, when the oil glut pushed crude below $30 a barrel, inflation expectations also tumbled.

“During that period you have extremely easy central bank policies,” said Bilello. “The fears were deflation, you had the ECB go negative on interest rates, the Bank of Japan go negative on interest rates and you had the Fed very reluctant to hike rates.”

Since 2016, crude oil has made a roughly 160 percent advance, picking up speed this year, and inflation expectations have risen alongside it. President Donald Trump tweeted a blast against OPEC on Friday, accusing the oil bloc of keeping prices “artificially very high.”

The rising prices should push the Fed to move rates higher to avoid being behind the curve.

“The Fed is hiking more aggressively, expected to hike three or four times this year, and now we’re talking about other central banks joining as well,” said Bilello. “The environment is changing, and I think this is an important relationship to watch going forward.”

While common thinking is that easy money on the equity market will cease once the Fed pushes rates higher, Bilello says history shows the opposite to be true.

“If we look back in history, there’s been some inflection points back in 1987, back in 2000 and back in 2007, you had yields failing to break higher,” he said. “It ended up being a bad thing for the equity market.”

By comparison, in 1988, 2003 and 2008 when yields failed to break lower and rates pushed higher, the equity market took off, he said.

“If you’re worried about higher interest rates and you’re hoping that they go back down, be careful what you wish for because it may mean an economy slipping into a recession or some turmoil in the markets,” he added.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.93 percent on Thursday, its highest level since March 21. Yields have not topped 3 percent since January 2014. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Thursday’s session at $68.29 a barrel.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Leg Higher On Shrinking US Stockpiles – Tyler Yell, CMT

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 19 Apr 2018 13:50:27 +0000

Crude Oil Price Forecast Talking Points:

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis Strategy Bullish continuation anticipated in a volatile environment
A small increase in US production is little match for across the board drawdown in crude, gasoline, and distillates.
Trader Sentiment Highlight from IG UK retail short positions favors further advances

OPEC and the United States seem to be sending Bullish signals to the Crude Oil market. OPEC and Russia appear to be setting the stage to keep oil cuts going despite a vanishing glut that caused them to engage the production curbs in the first place.

Second, shrinking US Oil stockpiles are showing a tighter physical market per the EIA report on Wednesday that puts pressure on physical buyers to buy now and hold as the benefits of carrying the physical exceed the costs as evidenced by backwardation.

These developments have led to Crude futures surging nearly 3% in New York with the price pushing closer to the $70/bbl mark for WTI and $75/bbl on Brent for June settlement. For the former, there remains a confluence of technical resistance from Fibonacci levels near the $70/bbl mark that could be seen as a place for buyers to take profits should the fundamental data develop fault lines.

Unlock our Q2 18 forecast to learn what will drive trends for Crude Oil in a volatile Q2

US Oil Exports Remain Elevated and Keep Oil Bulls Humming

Data source: Bloomberg, DoE

The chart above helps visualize the sharp rebound in US crude exports to nearly 1.8 million bpd that helps traders see how over-compliance by the OPEC+ constituents on the agreed upon production curb alongside Venezuela’s production collapse is paving the road for tighter markets and higher prices.

Technical Focus Looks to Price > Ichimoku Cloud, Fibonacci Targets

Crude oil looks set to test a key confluence of Fibonacci levels near the $70/bbl level that combines the 50% retracement of the 2014-2016 price range and the 100% Fibonacci extension of the 2016/2017 extremes drawn off the 2017 low of $42.07/bbl.

Given the fundamental view shared above and the continued market support from OPEC+, it’s hard to be long-term or medium-term bearish crude oil with a straight face with price trading above the Ichimoku cloud as the lagging line is also above price from 26-periods ago.

Want a full (& FREE) guide to walk you through Ichimoku? I created one here (click Advanced Guides)

Chart Watch:WTI Crude Price Continues To Push $70/bbl

Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT. Tweet @ForexYell for comments, questions

WTI Crude Oil Insight from IG Client Positioning

Source: IG CLIENT SENTIMENT data provided by IG

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil – US Crude price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short (emphasis mine).

—Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page. Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well. Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET. Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

original source

New Podcast Episode: Jon Najarian, Co-Founder of Investitute

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 19:06:41 +0000

“Jon Najarian has been trading options since the early 80s when he first entered the Chicago pits. I’ve always had an appreciation for the way Jon looks at the behavior of market participants through the options market, particularly the largest institutional players. By monitoring the volume size of these trades, he pays close attention to what the biggest participants are doing, often times trading alongside the “smart money”. I think his perspective on this specific area of the market adds a ton of value to our conversations about Technical Analysis.

In this episode, we discuss the new higher volatility regime in U.S. Stocks, what to expect moving forward and a few areas in the market where Jon is seeing unusual options activity. Since we’re lucky enough to have “Dr J” on the podcast, we had to ask him about the Chicago Bears, what the trading life in the city of Chicago was like, how things have changed through Technology and even a few words on Bitcoin and Crypto Currencies. I really enjoyed this conversation with someone whose work I have really admired for a long time.” – JC Parets

Applied Materials Stock Could Break Out on Institutional Demand

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 21 Mar 2018 14:00:45 +0000

A year-to-date (YTD) gain of approximately 11.8% for shares of Applied Materials, Inc. was likely helped by institutional investors acquiring shares. Applied Materials is one of the leaders in the semiconductor equipment space, and the market has rewarded shareholders nicely as the company continues its high-growth strategy. One of the biggest factors used to identify strong stocks for the long term is to look simply at supply and demand – and Applied Materials stock has been in demand. Large institutional players have been in accumulation mode as the company keeps beating expectations. Betting on leading stocks with great fundamentals and increasing institutional activity can be a smart strategy for long-term shareholders.

Brazil Small Caps Set to Rally 30%

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 15 Mar 2018 16:45:22 +0000

It is a turbulent market at the moment. Investors seem to be unsure of which way the market will ultimately break after the recent correction. But one emerging market is showing great potential. Based on the charts below, we can expect Brazil small-cap stocks to have an upward breakout.

In Memoriam – Richard W. Arms Jr. January 12, 1935-March 10, 2018

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 14 Mar 2018 14:01:06 +0000

Dick Arms – In Memorium and Charts

Dear friends, colleagues, and clients:

I wish to speak for a moment about a great friend and my first mentor in capital markets analysis

-Dick Arms.

Many of you will recognize Dick by the name of the famous stock market indicator that bears his

name – The Arms Index. It goes across the tape as ARMS and was originally known as TRIN, an

acronym for Trading Index. It is a volume adjusted advance/decline indicator that Dick created

and originally wrote up for an article in Barrons in 1968.

From there, his work in Technical Analysis continued to focus on volume aspects of the study.

Dick was always looking to improve technique and his Equivolume charting method cleverly

combined the volume data directly into the posting of the high, low, and close price statistics.

Chart making and the reading of the historical data is a visual craft and Dick saw ways of

incorporating more information into a single entry. I really enjoyed it. I first picked up one of

his books when I was twelve years old. I have always believed that markets are cyclical – – most

of the time and – – always, eventually. Dick’s volume cycle work intrigued me and led me to

meet my second career mentor – – Ian Notley – – whose work on global capital markets and cycles

you well know.

There is an old expression on the Street that “volume is validation”, the notion being that

increased volume together with a price move (in either direction) is a confirmation of the

importance of the price move. The price gives information about direction; and volume speaks

to power, potential persistency and duration..

Beyond Dick’s career lifetime fascination with markets was his love of literature and poetry.

Dick attended Brown University and studied geology but his real passion was reading and

writing. He had an immensely invigorating mind. He was a Mensa member. Whenever we got

together we challenged ourselves to recite poetry from memory and enjoyed many good laughs. I

will always remember that part of him as much as I will the analyst part.

Dick called me the weekend before his surgery to replace a heart valve and asked me to come out

to Albuquerque to visit once he had recovered. He wanted to see a friend. He was always the

optimist. Even Dick’s “geese were swans”, as the expression goes – ever positive was he.

Sincerely,

Jonathan Arter

Andrew Thrasher, Portfolio Manager at The Financial Enhancement Group

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 08 Mar 2018 19:40:37 +0000

Andrew Thrasher is the perfect guest to have on the podcast this month. His expertise in Volatility made him the 2017 Charles Dow Award winner, ironically the year that the US Stock market saw the lowest volatility on record. Today, Andrew is an Indianapolis-based Portfolio Manager at The Financial Enhancement group and we’re thrilled to have him on. In this episode, Andrew walks us through the Volatility spike in early February, some of the things that accelerated the move and what we should expect moving forward. We discuss his thoughts on market breadth, internals and sector rotation. This is a timely conversation with one of the smart ones!

Learn more about Andrew Thrasher

Click here to see all of the Charts mentioned in this episode

Square Stock Likely to Gain Under Institutional Accumulation

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 08 Mar 2018 16:35:57 +0000

A year-to-date (YTD) gain of roughly 37% for shares of Square, Inc. has institutional buying written all over it. In fact, the stock’s institutional ownership rate sits at 75% and will likely grow, as the company has made investments in bitcoin transactions and peer-to-peer (P2P) payments. But you don’t need to know the fundamental story because the main factor that drives shares is simply supply and demand – and Square stock has been in demand. Large institutional players have been in accumulation mode as the company continues to outperform expectations. Betting on leading stocks with great fundamentals and increasing institutional activity can be a smart strategy for long-term shareholders.

Buff Dormeier, CMT honored as a Forbes Best In State Wealth Advisor

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 01 Mar 2018 20:04:59 +0000

Fort Wayne, IN Feb. 15th, 2018, Buff Dormeier, Managing Director Investments & Senior PIM
Portfolio Manager, of Wells Fargo Advisors in Fort Wayne, IN has been recognized as a Best- In-State
Wealth Advisor – Indiana in the 2018 State by State Advisor Rankings by Forbes Magazine.
Buff Dormeier CMT, winner of 2007 Charles H. Dow Award* for technical analysis and Financial
Times Press author, is the lead advisor of Dormeier Wealth Management, a group of Wells Fargo
Advisors.

“This is an incredible honor to be named as a Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisor for Indiana,”
Dormeier said. “Our team strives to set a higher standard of excellence in the lives we touch. The
Honor speaks to the quality and integrity of our elite clientele whom we are blessed to build
meaningful relationships”

Dormeier Wealth Management provides comprehensive wealth management services and state of the
art portfolio management to affluent and institutional clientele. Their mission is to guide clients in
building and protecting wealth, providing an income plan for life and a legacy for beyond.
Media inquiries please contact Tia Runyan, Client Associate at 260-423-4816 or
tia.runyan@wfadvisors.com.

*The Charles H. Dow Award was not based upon investment performance of any portfolio but rather
the papers honored with the Award represent the depth of technical analysis.
Ranking algorithm based on industry experience, interviews, compliance records, assets under
management, revenue and other criteria by SHOOK Research, LLC, which does not receive
compensation from the advisors or their firms in exchange for placement on a ranking. Investment
performance is not a criterion.

About Dormeier Wealth Management of Wells Fargo Advisors
Dormeier Wealth Management dynamically advises clientele toward strategies to help meet their
specific investment objectives in what are often uncertain investment climates. They utilize a defined
process for each phase of their client’s lives utilizing industry best practices, coordinating with their
clients’ accountants and attorneys, encouraging a custom fit for their unique planning needs.

About Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) is a diversified, community-based financial services company
with $1.9 trillion in assets. Founded in 1852 and headquartered in San Francisco, Wells Fargo
provides banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance through
more than 8,600 locations, 13,000 ATMs, the internet (wellsfargo.com) and mobile banking, and has
offices in 42 countries and territories to support customers who conduct business in the global
economy. With approximately 268,000 team members, Wells Fargo serves one in three households in
the United States. Wells Fargo & Company was ranked No. 27 on Fortune’s 2016 rankings of
America’s largest corporations. Wells Fargo’s vision is to satisfy our customers’ financial needs and
help them succeed financially.

About Wells Fargo Advisors
With $1.5 trillion in client assets as of September 30, 2016, Wells Fargo Advisors provides investment
advice and guidance to clients through 15,086 full-service financial advisors and 3,899 licensed
bankers. This vast network of advisors, one of the nation’s largest, serves investors through locations
in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Wells Fargo Advisors is the trade name used by Wells
Fargo Clearing Services LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC,
separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.
www.wellsfargoadvisors.com

Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC. Member SIPC.

Louise Yamada, Managing Director of LY Technical Research Advisors

Chelsey Clevenger — Thu, 01 Mar 2018 19:35:09 +0000

Originally Posted by JC Parets from Technical Analysis Radio.

Louise Yamada has been an inspiration to me for my entire career. Bringing nearly 4 decades of experience as a technical analyst, Louise adds a unique perspective on markets that makes her the perfect compliment to some of the younger guests that we’ve had on the podcast. Louise, who for a number of years received Institutional Investor’s top ranking, was a special guest on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street” and you can still find her regularly being featured on Bloomberg, CNBC and other financial media outlets. Today, Louise Yamada, CMT is the Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors (LYA). In this conversation, we talk about the long-term cycles of interest rates and precious metals going back almost 100 years. While we do dive into these longer time horizons, in this episode Louise also gives us her short-term take on U.S. Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin and even lays out her favorite strategy for the Bond Market right now. This is such a treat for us to have a legend share her time and be a guest on our show. She has been a huge influence on my work over many years, so I hope you enjoy this discussion as much as I did!

Learn more about Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors

Click here to see all of the Charts mentioned in this episode

Uptrend Resuming Or Deeper Correction Coming? Watch This Market Sector.

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 28 Feb 2018 15:31:04 +0000

“Semiconductors lead technology, and tech leads the broad market.”

I wish I had a nickel for every time I said that phrase to a subscriber or investor. Semis tend to be the “tip of the spear,” leading the way in both stock market uptrends and downtrends. This is because they are the “fast horse” that investors want to be on to capture some relative outperformance versus the overall market during stock market advances, and are typically the first horse they jump off of when the market weakens, often in favor of more stodgy blue-chip stocks.

In my September 7th article for Forbes, entitled The Key To Avoiding A Fall Stock Market Correction, I identified a bullish breakout in the PHLX Semiconductor (SOXX) Index and said it targeted a 10% rise to 1014. That target was met about five weeks later, on October 11th, during which time SOXX outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by 5.9%.

That’s the relative outperformance I’m talking about.

Later, in my October 7th Forbes article, entitled This Sector Poised To Outperform In The 4th Quarter, the sector I was referring to was again Semiconductors. The SOXX proceeded to outperform the S&P 500 by 10.3% by November 24th before underperforming into mid-December. The trigger for this December underperformance versus SPX was SOXX’s failed initial attempt to rise above its March 2000 top-of-the-tech-bubble high of 1362, as shown in Chart 1 below, a long-term monthly chart.

(Also, as a follow-up, in that October 7th article I also mentioned a resumption of the larger bullish trend in Zions Bancorp ZION -0.05%(ZION) that targeted a 14% rise to $54.50 per share. My target was met on January 23rd.)

Chart 2 below takes a closer, more recent look at SOXX via a daily chart since August 2017, and highlights: 1) its failed test of overhead resistance at 1362 on November 24th, 2) the subsequent rise slightly above it on January 23rd, and 3) today’s rise to fresh highs.

I view these three tests of 1362, each one slightly higher than the last, as evidence that this 18-year overhead resistance level is gradually being broken. If this level has truly been broken, however, the 1362 area should now loosely contain the index as underlying support as semiconductors establish a new and significantly higher trading range.

And, per semiconductors’ tendency to lead the S&P 500, continued strength from SOXX 1362 should lead a move to new all-time highs in the broad market S&P 500.

John Kosar CMT is Chief Market Strategist at Asbury Research LLC, an independent provider of technical and quantitative financial market research, and is a Managing Principal at Asbury Investment Management LLC, which brings Asbury Research investment ideas to individual client portfolios.

Source: Forbes

Intel Stock Likely to Climb Further Alongside Institutional Demand

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 28 Feb 2018 14:23:59 +0000

Salesforce.com Stock Will Keep Climbing as Institutions Accumulate Shares

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:20:04 +0000

A year-to-date gain of approximately 9.52% gain for shares of Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM) shouldn’t surprise you, as this stock is an institutional favorite. In fact, the company’s institutional ownership rate sits at 88%. The main factor that drives shares is none other than supply and demand – and over the past year, Salesforce.com stock has been in demand. Large institutional players have been in accumulation mode as the company continues to outperform expectations. Betting on leading stocks with growing sales, great technicals and increasing institutional activity can be a smart move for long-term shareholders.

NVIDIA Stock Has the Monster Growth Institutions Want

Emily E.A. Meyer — Fri, 16 Feb 2018 16:51:25 +0000

A year-to-date gain of roughly 21% for shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) likely could not have happened without strong institutional buying propelling the stock higher. The real art in finding big winners in the stock market is understanding what is driving the shares. High institutional support suggests that some of the brightest minds out there have done their homework and want in on the action. Betting on leading stocks with growing earnings and sales, great technicals and bullish institutional activity can be a great recipe for long-term investors.

“Gold is saying: Get ready for upside!” – Brian Shannon, CMT

Chelsey Clevenger — Wed, 14 Feb 2018 15:42:20 +0000

It has been quite a while since looking at a price chart of gold has lead me to think it has serious upside potential. When I look at gold today, I see what looks to be a nice upside move setting up. I want to share some simple technical analysis to make a case for why gold looks bullish and how to participate.

This piece is focused simply on price action and the psychology which shapes it. Beyond this sentence, there will be no mention of: inflation, monetary policy, asset allocation, etc. The analysis here will be centered around two different timeframes: weekly and daily.

When we use multiple timeframe analysis, we first consult the longer-term timeframe to develop our overall thesis, and then we drill down to shorter timeframes to develop our plan. Once we have established our plan, our job is to wait for evidence that our plan has developed to the point where it provides us with an acceptable risk/reward to take action.

Let’s look at a longer-term chart first. The chart below shows the price action of spot gold prices since 2004. Each candle on the chart combines the price action of 10 trading days. Overlaid on this chart is a 20-period (each period being 10 days) or 200-day moving average. Notice a few things on this chart.

Gold (spot price) – 10 day candlestick – 13 years

View photos

Source: AlphaTrends.net

The numbered points on the chart above are detailed in the bullets below. If price numbers are not clear due to scaling look to the next chart.

Gold was in a major bull market up until early 2013 when it made a lower low below the 200-day (blue) moving average.
The higher lows from late 2016 show that buyers are becoming more aggressive price wise. No longer are they waiting for a pullback to 1,100 1,200 1,250 or even 1,300 before they regain control. These higher lows show increased demand at higher levels; that is bullish.
It is taking less time between tests of resistance between 1,350-1,380. This level was tested in July of 2016 and then 14 months later in August of 2017 and then just four months later in January of this year. The more frequent tests of the supply area indicate the buyers are becoming more time-wise and are likely to regain control in the near term as they chew through that supply.
If gold trades above the resistance at 1,380, it will occur with a rising 200-day moving average which would confirm the buyers have finally regained control of the longer-term trend.
On the way down, gold traded very little volume from 1,600 down to 1,400. This is significant because there is little “price memory” in that area. Less volume on the way down should make it easier for gold to climb higher without much chance of supply being released from people who bought in that area and are now trying to get out breakeven.

Now that we have determined the weekly timeframe, it gives us reasons to look more closely at the price action in gold. We will study the daily timeframe to start to get a better sense of timing a purchase. The chart below shows the daily price (each candle shows the trading of one day) of gold from July of 2017 through Monday February 12, 2018.

Gold (spot price) – 1 day candlestick – 8 months

View photos

Source: AlphaTrends.net

On the daily chart, we have three moving averages: a 10 (red), 20 (blue) and 50 (green.) Look to the numbers on the chart above to clarify the following points.

From the December low to the January high, gold has only retraced 50% of that mov. This is well within what is considered a normal, healthy pullback.
The pullback has held above the rising 50-day moving average. The direction of this moving average shows the trend of the last 50 days continues to be higher.
The shorter-term (10 & 20) moving averages are sloped lower. This indicates the near-term profit-taking has not completed. Once gold can climb back above these moving averages (and they flatten to turn higher) we can assume the profit taking of the last 2 weeks has been absorbed.

Possible trading plans for different timeframe participants

If you are a long-term (potential holding time of years) investor, you might want to start accumulating in this area. I personally would not continue to hold if the price were to make a lower low on the weekly timeframe. In plain English, I would use a stop under the December 2017 low of 1,236.

If you are an intermediate term (months) trader you could buy some in this current area and then add to a breakout above the 2018 high of 1,366.06. Buying some now with a stop below the December low would help provide a lower cost versus buying the whole amount on a break of the 2018 high.

If you are a shorter-term momentum trader (weeks) then you might want to wait for confirmation that a higher high is made above the rising 200-day moving average. A move above the 1,366.06 high would be confirmation of the higher high. After a higher low is made, I would place a stop below the rising 50-day moving average.

How to trade gold

The way I see it, there are three possible ways to trade gold.

You could use the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) which trades at approximately 1/10th the price of physical gold.
You could use Gold futures contracts (GC=F).
You could buy physical gold coins.

For me, I prefer to trade in physical bullion, and the best site I have found to do that is www.golddealer.com. I have used this company for over 15 years, and I trust them.

Whatever way you decide to get involved in gold, or if you don’t get involved at all, I encourage you to do your own research and use this information as part of your decision-making process. Trade well and manage risk!

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Technician: Sell the Rally and Buy the Dip

Chelsey Clevenger — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 16:59:45 +0000

Bill Strazzullo, Bell Curve Trading partner and chief market strategist, takes a technical look at the markets during this volatility and gives his outlook for range trading opportunities.

Click the Image to be directed to the video.

CEO Money – John Kosar Radio Interview

Chelsey Clevenger — Mon, 05 Feb 2018 16:50:17 +0000

Click the graphic below to listen to Chief Market Analyst John Kosar’s Friday February 2nd 2018 radio interview with CEO Money’s Michael Yorba in Dallas, Texas.

More detailed charts and analysis of the topics discussed by John Kosar in this interview can be found in our premium reports.

Subscribers can log into the Research Center to view them.Interested investors can request sample research and pricing by clicking here or by calling 888-960-0005.

A Rare Stock Market Overbought Signal is Flashing Red

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 01 Feb 2018 15:01:55 +0000

Measuring unusual institutional activity has historically yielded prescient markers pin-pointing short-term market local peaks. These triggers also provide opportunistic entry points for those on the sidelines who have been waiting for a pullback to participate in this multi-year bull market. This overbought signal is quite rare, and the last time it fired off was February 21, 2017 and a month later the Russell 2000 fell 5.42%.

2nd Annual Chart Summit

Emily E.A. Meyer — Tue, 23 Jan 2018 17:44:14 +0000

The 2nd Annual Chart Summit will be broadcasting LIVE from the Internet on Saturday January 27th from 9:00AM – 6:00 PM. The summit brings together an elite group of professional technicians who will walk you through their process and show you how to apply their methods in the current market environment. This impressive list of industry experts includes active traders, top Wall St. analysts, wealth managers, swing traders and long-term Investors who each brings a unique perspective on the market.

Register Here

Carnival Stock in Ascending Triangle Pattern

Emily E.A. Meyer — Mon, 22 Jan 2018 22:06:52 +0000

Carnival Corporation (CCL) is in a pattern I love to find – an ascending triangle. These chart patterns are great because the bears think it is forming a double top along the red line on the chart below and that shares are about to plunge lower.

Smart Money Betting Against Energy – Asbury Research

Chelsey Clevenger — Fri, 19 Jan 2018 16:05:45 +0000

As WTI crude went above $50 last year, Kosar noticed that the Commitments of Traders (COT) data was showing a record net-short position among smart money hedgers in the crude oil futures market.

Now that crude is in excess of $60 a barrel, these hedgers have dug in and increased their short position even more, Kosar noted. Thus, we have a large ‘smart money’ net-short position that’s losing money.

“Here’s why that bothers me,” he said. “I don’t like to fade the smart money, but when oil prices got up to $120 a barrel years ago, the same thing happened. At about $60 or $70 a barrel, these hedgers were really short, and the market kept going up.”

At that level, hedgers had to start buying back their short hedges. This short covering forced buying, which is a big part of what fueled oil’s move to $120.

Normally, Kosar prefers to avoid splashy calls, but when he sees a group or entity this leaning this heavily to one side, it bears mention.

“That’s an outlier,” he said. “That’s not something I would bet on, but it is something I’m watching now because these smart money hedgers are under the gun right now. Every time oil goes up a dollar, these guys are feeling more pain.”

Oil, Bonds, and Commodities

As we have oil prices heading higher, we can expect an inflationary impact. The question becomes, will this influence the Fed’s rate increasing cycle, and what can we expect from bonds?

Just as with oil, hedgers in the futures market hold an extremely large net-short position in the 30-year T-bond, Kosar noted. They’re betting big that long-dated Treasury prices are headed downward, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields and long-term interest rates headed up.

We’re also starting to see strength overall in commodity prices. Kosar was in and out of the metals and mining ETF several times over the past 12 months, and we’ve seen a recent explosive rise in base metals.

“Aside from what I mentioned in oil and rates, we’re starting to see some of the building materials … starting to do better,” he said. “You put all of those three together, and it suggests global growth and more global economic strength into the early to middle part of this year. Yes, the market’s over-extended, but if we look across the landscape, what I’m seeing is still positive.”

Investing in the Unknown

There are uncertainties here, and Kosar recommends using a focused approach, especially for those who haven’t participated in the bull market so far.

Instead of buying the S&P 500, he recommends identifying individual stocks that are likely to outperform, or industry groups that will. By focusing on these industry group ETFs and individual stocks, investors can keep their risk-to-reward ratio down to a low level.

Eventually, the market is going to top out and we’re going to get a 20 percent correction, Kosar noted, so staying focused will allow investors to continue in the market and limit risk. While homebuilders were his group of choice to find outperformance last year, he’s looking for opportunities in the healthcare sector this year.

“I don’t [put on a trade] unless the initial risk is 5 percent or less, and the reward is 1-to-3 or, in other words, I’m risking $1 to make $3,” he said. “What I would suggest is, if you missed this and you can’t stand it anymore, use a rifle approach, rather than a shotgun approach.”

Source: Asbury Research

New Podcast Episode with Trader Joe Fahmy

Chelsey Clevenger — Fri, 19 Jan 2018 15:06:40 +0000

Joe Fahmy is one of the premier voices for the importance of relative strength analysis throughout an investing process. This podcast episode discusses the current U.S. Stock Market environment, sentiment and some select areas where he is currently seeing rotation and strength.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock Is an Institutional Favorite

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 18 Jan 2018 14:30:17 +0000

A gain of approximately 80% over the past year for Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) stock likely could not have happened without strong institutional accumulation of its shares. When looking for the strongest candidates for long-term upside, it can be helpful to look where big investors are likely wagering on upside. Betting on leading stocks with growing earningsand sales, great technicals, and bullish institutional activity can be a great recipe for long-term investors.

Chameleon indicators paint short-term bearish picture for bitcoin

Tyler Wood — Wed, 20 Dec 2017 14:53:57 +0000

After highs just shy of 20,000 on Dec. 17, bitcoin has turned bearish, and the Chameleon depicts this move lower with predominantly red price bars.

The Chameleon Oscillator in the lower panel gave warning of this trend change when it significantly broke below the zero line about 2 p.m. Sunday. During the 3 o’clock hour Tuesday, we saw the oscillator finding resistance at the zero line. If it is turned away again, look for continued bearish red price action in the upper panel. Only an oscillator break above zero would suggest a pause in the decline.

Chameleon Studies were created by Alex Cole – Technical Analysis and product specialist at Bloomberg

What Apple’s Earnings Win Means for Its Stock Today

Emily E.A. Meyer — Fri, 03 Nov 2017 18:04:59 +0000

Late Thursday, Apple Inc. (AAPL) released a positive quarterly report, beating the street on sales ($52.6 billion vs. expectations of $50.5 billion) and earnings per share ($2.07 vs. $1.87). Sales and profits rose 12% and 24% year over year respectively. For the coming big holiday quarter, Apple guided sales expectations of $84 billion to $87 billion, up 9% year over year.

Bank Stocks Are Back in Rally Mode

Emily E.A. Meyer — Fri, 06 Oct 2017 19:00:17 +0000

I wrote back in August about the financial sector and an impending correction in the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF). A breakdown through short-term support levels and the 50-day moving average had suggested further downside in the sector.

Bitcoin: Your New ‘Safe Haven’

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 28 Sep 2017 12:00:15 +0000

On Monday morning, North Korea’s Foreign Minister accused the United States of declaring war after President Trump tweeted that North Korea “won’t be around much longer.” This hawkish rhetoric caused investors to sell stocks and move into “stores of value” such as cash, gold, and somewhat surprisingly, Bitcoin.

Why Apple Stock Could Climb 10 Percent

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 27 Sep 2017 21:00:09 +0000

In an almost perfect “buy the rumor and sell the news” fashion, Apple (AAPL) stock has sold off more than six percent since the iPhone maker announced its new lineup of smartphones on Sept. 12.

It was a classic scenario because we already knew what Apple was going to announce – almost all the details had been leaked online in the months leading up to the big announcement. The stock rallied as we approached the event and then tumbled as the news came out. Now Apple’s stock is trading at a key support level.

Target Stock Looks Ready for a Rebound

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 27 Sep 2017 16:30:18 +0000

It was a rough start of the year for Target (TGT), and it was downhill for the stock since. Back in February, the discount retailer reported disappointing fourth-quarter results and guided for a profit decline in 2017. Since their year-to-date high of $74.24 on Jan. 4, shares went on a steady slide.

2 Key Indicators Point to a Nasdaq Downturn

Emily E.A. Meyer — Mon, 25 Sep 2017 16:30:32 +0000

In the last few days, there’s been a noticeable momentum change in the technology sector. Some of tech’s biggest names, like Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL), have all significantly underperformed the Nasdaq 100. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s plan to sell off assets on the U.S. government’s balance sheet and hike interest rates in December is still on schedule. The result looks like a rotation out of riskier assets with more premium valuations, such as technology, into financials, a sector with a cheaper valuation and one that would benefit from higher rates.

Apple and Cisco Stocks: A Reversal of Fortune

Emily E.A. Meyer — Thu, 21 Sep 2017 21:00:53 +0000

Generally speaking, there are two types of technology companies: those that sell or market directly to consumers, and those that market and sell to businesses.

For the last several months, consumer-focused technology companies have dominated the stock market, whether they’re consumer internet (Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX)); consumer retail (Amazon.com (AMZN)); or consumer hardware (Apple (AAPL)).

4 Top-Performing Alternatives to Bitcoin

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 20 Sep 2017 21:00:57 +0000

While Bitcoin dominates the headlines, its underlying blockchain technology has spawned a new ecosystem of alternative cryptocurrencies, known as “altcoins.” Following Bitcoin’s staggering 1,000% moonshot of the past 12 months, a fresh wave of capital has flooded the space searching for the next 10-bagger.

Alphabet Stock Is Setting up for a Major Breakdown

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 20 Sep 2017 16:30:18 +0000

After months of a slow grind lower, shares of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) are setting up for a major breakdown. The stock for Google’s parent company significantly unperformed the broader market over the summer and is down around eight percent from its June peak, compared with all-time highs set by the Nasdaq and other major indices.

October 2017 TAN Level III Registration Deadline Extended

Emily E.A. Meyer — Mon, 18 Sep 2017 19:49:39 +0000

October 2017 TAN Level III Registration Deadline Extended

Registration Deadline: Sunday, October 1^st

The registration deadline for the October 2017 TAN Level III exam has been extended. The deadline to register for TAN Level III is Sunday, October 1^stat 12:00am ET.

Exam Dates:

TAN Level III: October 19, 2017

Final Registration Deadline:

TAN Level III: October 1, 2017 at 12:00am ET

John Kosar’s Latest Interview: Financial Sense

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 13 Sep 2017 16:00:41 +0000

Jim Puplava of the popular Financial Sense website welcomes back John Kosar CMT, Chief Investment Strategist at Asbury Research LLC.

In his latest interview by Financial Sense, which took place on Friday September 8th, John discussed Asbury Research’s outlook for the US financial landscape, as well as specific areas of the economy including:

the US stock market, market sectors, and industry groups,
US interest rates,
key commodities like silver, gold. and crude oil, and
the US Dollar.

Listen Now

Where Will the Nasdaq Go Next? It Depends on Apple

Emily E.A. Meyer — Wed, 13 Sep 2017 00:00:41 +0000

Driven by five major technology stocks, including Apple Inc. (AAPL), the Nasdaq 100 outperformed the market through the spring and into the summer, but for the last six weeks, the index has been trending sideways in consolidation mode.

Apple Stock Is at a Key Pivot Point

Emily E.A. Meyer — Tue, 12 Sep 2017 21:00:09 +0000

With all eyes set on Apple (AAPL) Tuesday for its big event, there’s a lot riding on the success of its latest product launch. Most of the details are known: There will be new iPhones, including a $1,000 model, and a new Apple Watch. Wall Street’s reaction will give us a good read as to how impressed investors are—with some key pivot points to keep an eye on.